镍：清洁能源未来的战略金属 — SO OK TRADING 撰写的文

黄金回调 – 原油下跌 – 工业金属飙升：全球市场大逆转 ✨ 全球市场正在经历重大转折！ 黄金：短期需警惕抛售压力，但对长期投资者而言仍是新一轮的布局机会。 原油：和平消息后大幅下跌，趋势明显走弱。 工业金属：强劲反弹，反映全球经济信心全面恢复。

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs

铜市场分析 LME：“在高峰休整，蓄势迎接超级周期” SO OK TRADING｜2026年6月23日 铜目前正处于“在高峰喘息”的阶段。今年年初创下历史最高价后，全球市场进入短期调整。但整体趋势依然强劲，长期上涨的动能仍在延续，背后动力来自先进技术产业、电动汽车（EV）以及全球清洁能源基础设施的需求。 6月的价格小幅回落，主要受一些短期因素影响，例如大型矿山恢复出口、美元走强，以及美伊地缘政治紧张局势的缓解。然而，铜市场依然由新兴产业的真实需求推动。全球分析师认为，价格有望在2026年内冲击 15,000美元/吨。 对于企业和投资者而言，现在正是制定战略的黄金时机：