「铝 P1020：未来之金属，在危机与转型中驱动新世界」 SO OK TRADING：2026年6月5日

♻️ 稀土回收：钕与镝 —— 未来产业 SO OK TRADING | 2026年7月20日 在全球迈向清洁能源与电动技术的时代，钕 (Nd) 和 镝 (Dy) 已成为现代产业的核心。它们广泛应用于 电动汽车（EV）电机、风力发电机、硬盘驱动器、扬声器以及高性能耳机。 稀土回收不仅能减少矿山开采和电子废弃物，还能比新生产节省 60–80% 的能源，并在长期内保障全球供应链的稳定。 最新的回收技术包括 湿法冶金（Hydrometallurgy）、高温冶金（Pyrometallurgy）、HPMS（氢处理磁性废料），正在使资源管理更加清洁高效。预计在 2026–2035 年间，行业年均增长率将达到 10–15%。 泰国也正在积极投入这一领域。除了 泰国矿业局（DPIM）、素兰纳里理工大学、朱拉隆功大学 的研究外，还与日本民间企业合作开发 EV 电机磁体回收工厂，并推动 Chatree REE 矿山 的运营。该矿预计到 2026 年可供应全球需求的 约 5%。 稀土回收产业已不再只是“环保的选择”，而是 支撑经济与清洁能源安全的基础设施，将在未来十年塑造世界与泰国的格局。 SO OK TRADING FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE

全球金属市场2026：供给博弈正在重塑产业未来 ZINC ANTIMONY SILICON TIN LEAD 驱动电池、镀锌钢、压铸、锡涂层与清洁能源产业的基础金属

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs