銅価格高騰！スーパーサイクル2026 – AI・EV・クリーンエネルギー時代の未来の金属 Copper Outlook: 価格動向と産業利用の展望 – 2026年5月28日

Copper prices are expected to remain elevated and bullish in 2026, driven by strong demand from the green energy transition (EVs, renewables, grid upgrades) and persistent mine supply constraints/disruptions, with forecasts generally placing prices in the $10,000 to over $12,000 per tonne range, although some analysts foresee a slight cooling to $10,000-$11,000 as market balances tighten. Key factors include IRA spending, AI infrastructure needs, constrained new mine supply, and potential Chinese economic recovery, creating tight markets despite some projected minor surpluses. Key Price Predictions (2026): Goldman Sachs: $10,000 - $11,000/tonne range, averaging $10,710/tonne in H1 2026. J.P. Morgan: Averaging around $12,075/tonne, with potential spikes to $12,500/tonne in Q2. Bank of America: Average of $11,313/tonne, with potential for $15,000/tonne spikes. UBS: $11,000/tonne by Sept 2026. World Bank: Average of $9,800/tonne. Bullish Drivers: Energy Transition: Massive demand for grid expansion, EVs, and renewable infrastructure. AI Infrastructure: Increased demand for data centers. Supply Deficit: Mine disruptions (Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, etc.) and difficulty bringing new mines online. China: Potential economic rebound acting as a catalyst. Potential Headwinds/Volatility: Policy-induced Surpluses: E.g., from IRA incentives or scrap availability. Stronger USD: Can weigh on commodity prices. Slower Demand: If China's recovery falters. Overall Outlook: Expect a tight market with strong underlying demand, leading to high prices, but with significant volatility due to policy shifts and mine output fluctuations. The market is moving towards a structural deficit, supporting higher prices long-term

「戦争終結後の世界アルミニウム市場 ― あらゆる側面を徹底分析」 価格と供給の状況分析（2026年6月20日付） SO OK TRADING 米国とイランの和平合意、そしてホルムズ海峡の再開という朗報を受け、世界金属市場は即座に反応しました。 アルミニウム価格は一時 3,700ドル/トン を突破した後、わずか1週間で 3,400ドル/トン へ急落。これは地政学的リスクプレミアムの消失を示す典型的な「膝反射的下落（Knee‑jerk drop）」です。 しかし、これは恒久的な下落ではありません。 市場は「新たな均衡へ向けた調整局面」に入り、短期的な圧力と長期的な支援要因が共存しています。