「Copper Supercycle: 平凡な金属から世界を動かす力へ — 過去10年で最も熱い銅、世界の投資家が注目する戦略的金属、そして世界を変える力」 SO OK TRADING : 2026年5月14日

ADC12の利用動向は大きく変化しています。従来は低コストを重視した鋳造材料として扱われてきましたが、現在では持続可能性と先端技術に支えられた戦略的役割を担うようになっています。特に電気自動車（EV）、再生可能エネルギー、そしてスマートエレクトロニクス構造の分野で注目されています。 このインフォグラフィックでは、ADC12の主要な特性、世界の主要産業での用途、市場価格、そして将来の技術トレンドをまとめています。真空鋳造（Vacuum Casting）からAIによるゼロ欠陥生産（Zero-defect Manufacturing）まで、次世代の進化を一目で理解できます。 高品質で、コスト効率と持続可能性を両立するアルミニウム鋳造材料をお探しのメーカーや購買担当者の皆様に、SO OK TRADINGは信頼できるパートナーです。当社は金属、非金属、農産品、グリーンエネルギーの分野において豊富な専門知識を持ち、透明性の高いサービスを提供しています。

アルミニウム P1020 / A7 — 持続可能な未来を支える戦略的金属 単なる商品ではなく、電気自動車・クリーンエネルギー・リサイクル可能なパッケージ を動かす原動力です。 SO OK TRADING は国際基準に沿った高品質アルミニウムを世界市場へお届けします。 ✨ #SOOKTRADING #AluminumP1020 #GreenAluminum #EVMaterials #SustainableFuture #ThaiExports

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs