Global Aluminum Market Overview (January 2026) By SOOK TRADING

Aluminum Price Situation (January 2026) - Analysis By SO OK TRADING

In January 2026, global aluminum futures traded in the range of USD 3,000–3,200 per metric ton, showing high volatility driven by both supply and demand factors. China remains the largest producer and consumer, while Europe’s implementation of CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) has pushed aluminum premiums higher.

Factors Affecting Aluminum Prices (January 2026)

LME (London Metal Exchange): Futures traded between USD 3,000–3,200/MT.
United Kingdom: Futures broke above USD 3,000/MT for the first time since 2025, reflecting supply shortage concerns.
China: Production capacity is near the ceiling of 45 million MT/year, limiting further expansion. Exports fell by 9.2% in November 2025 as domestic demand took priority → supply tightness supports firm prices, likely sustaining around USD 3,000/MT.
Indonesia: New smelter investments face challenges from high energy costs and regulatory hurdles → supply unlikely to increase in the near term.
Supply & Demand Dynamics

Limited Supply: China cannot expand production further; Indonesia’s investments remain stalled.
Strong Demand: Transportation, construction, renewable energy, and especially EVs, automobiles, and machinery continue to drive aluminum consumption.
 

Aluminum Premium (MJP – Midwest Japan)

MJP (Japan P1020A Aluminum Premium) Q1/2026: Expected to rebound from the previous quarter’s low.
Supporting factors: Post-fiscal year restocking, smelting capacity management, and CBAM developments in Europe.
Offers have risen significantly, shifting market power from buyers to sellers.
As of January 9, 2026: Q4/2025 MJP premium was around USD 110/MT, rising to USD 150/MT in Q1/2026.
This may signal the beginning of a new aluminum price cycle.
 

Market Dynamics & Technicals

Price Trend: From Q4/2025 levels of USD 2,700/MT, prices climbed to USD 3,000/MT by late December. On January 9, 2026, aluminum was trading at USD 3,080/MT.
Negotiation Shift: Market dynamics have shifted from buyer-driven to seller-driven.
Supply-Demand Balance: Strong demand and constrained supply continue to push prices upward.
 

LME Price Forecast (CMAL3)

January 2026: Expected range USD 3,000–3,300/MT (Base 3,000, Ceiling 3,300, Midpoint 3,100).
Recommended Purchase Range: USD 3,000–3,050/MT.
February 2026 Forecast: ~USD 3,150/MT.
March 2026 Forecast: ~USD 3,150/MT.
Global market developments may influence these projections further.