“Global Non-Ferrous Metals Market: Price Trend Analysis and Weekly Outlook (September 21–25, 2026) — Supply Tightness Sustains High Prices”: SO OK TRADING
Global Non-Ferrous Metals Price Outlook (September 21–25, 2026)
Market Overview with Ceiling–Average–Floor Forecasts Article by SO OK TRADING | September 20, 2026
Introduction
The global non-ferrous metals market this week remains under pressure from key macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and Gulf States. These moves have strengthened the U.S. dollar, exerting short-term downward pressure on commodity prices. However, supply tightness across major metals continues to provide crucial support, preventing prices from breaking below key levels.
Market Outlook
The London Metal Exchange (LME) is currently in a “Consolidation to Rebound” phase. While prices faced downward pressure in mid-September, strong physical demand helped them recover by the end of last week. Copper and Zinc, in particular, are supported by supply disruptions, keeping prices elevated.
Metal-Specific Trends
Copper
Price Range: 14,000–14,600 USD/MT
Trend: Sideways / Bullish Bias
Drivers: Yangshan premium surged +72%, severe concentrate shortages, global mines struggling to meet demand
Aluminium
Price Range: 3,200–3,350 USD/MT
Trend: High Volatility / Correction Risk
Drivers: LME stocks at century-low levels, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, rising energy costs pushing production costs higher
Zinc
Price Range: 3,900–4,000 USD/MT
Trend: Bullish
Drivers: Korea Zinc smelter accident, backwardation structure signaling tight market, prices hitting multi-year highs
Nickel
Price Range: 16,000–16,300 USD/MT
Trend: Sideways
Drivers: Oversupply in Asia, slow recovery in EV battery demand
Tin
Price Range: 52,500–54,500 USD/MT
Trend: Correction from profit-taking
Drivers: Indonesia planning to launch a commodity exchange for tin and nickel
Lead
Price Range: 1,880–1,920 USD/MT
Trend: Stable
Drivers: Steady downstream demand, sufficient supply
External Factors
EU restrictions on scrap metal exports → impacting recycling markets in Asia
China’s PMI data → key indicator for physical demand trends
Strong U.S. dollar → continued downward pressure on commodity prices
Internal Factors
Extremely low LME stocks, especially Aluminium and Zinc → risk of supply shortages
Unusually high premiums:
Copper Cathode: 145–160 USD/MT (CIF Thailand)
Aluminium Ingot (P1020): Q3 MJP settlement at 11-year high of 395 USD/MT; Q4 negotiations expected around 350–370 USD/MT, with potential to revisit 395–400 USD/MT if oil prices remain elevated
Procurement Strategies (Thailand & Global)
Copper: Avoid large spot purchases due to high premiums → use monthly averages or term contracts
Aluminium: Review delivery terms; switching to FOB may reduce freight costs
Zinc & Copper: Watch for volatility from supply disruptions
Hedging Strategy: Gradual purchases or partial price locking during dips to mitigate risk
Price Forecasts (Ceiling–Average–Floor, September 21–25, 2026)
Copper: Ceiling 14,700 / Average 14,400 / Floor 14,100 USD/MT
Aluminium: Ceiling 3,380 / Average 3,300 / Floor 3,200 USD/MT
Zinc: Ceiling 4,050 / Average 3,950 / Floor 3,850 USD/MT
Nickel: Ceiling 16,400 / Average 16,150 / Floor 15,800 USD/MT
Tin: Ceiling 54,800 / Average 53,800 / Floor 52,500 USD/MT
Lead: Ceiling 1,930 / Average 1,900 / Floor 1,870 USD/MT
Conclusion
Despite ongoing pressure from interest rates and a strong dollar, supply tightness continues to support non-ferrous metal prices, with Copper and Zinc showing strong resilience due to supply disruptions. Aluminium remains at risk due to historically low stocks and high energy costs. For buyers, risk diversification, long-term contracts, and hedging strategies are essential to navigate the volatility in global markets.
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