「ラオス：アジアの新たな経済資源の宝庫 | SO OK TRADING：2026年8月3日」

Copper prices are expected to remain elevated and bullish in 2026, driven by strong demand from the green energy transition (EVs, renewables, grid upgrades) and persistent mine supply constraints/disruptions, with forecasts generally placing prices in the $10,000 to over $12,000 per tonne range, although some analysts foresee a slight cooling to $10,000-$11,000 as market balances tighten. Key factors include IRA spending, AI infrastructure needs, constrained new mine supply, and potential Chinese economic recovery, creating tight markets despite some projected minor surpluses. Key Price Predictions (2026): Goldman Sachs: $10,000 - $11,000/tonne range, averaging $10,710/tonne in H1 2026. J.P. Morgan: Averaging around $12,075/tonne, with potential spikes to $12,500/tonne in Q2. Bank of America: Average of $11,313/tonne, with potential for $15,000/tonne spikes. UBS: $11,000/tonne by Sept 2026. World Bank: Average of $9,800/tonne. Bullish Drivers: Energy Transition: Massive demand for grid expansion, EVs, and renewable infrastructure. AI Infrastructure: Increased demand for data centers. Supply Deficit: Mine disruptions (Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, etc.) and difficulty bringing new mines online. China: Potential economic rebound acting as a catalyst. Potential Headwinds/Volatility: Policy-induced Surpluses: E.g., from IRA incentives or scrap availability. Stronger USD: Can weigh on commodity prices. Slower Demand: If China's recovery falters. Overall Outlook: Expect a tight market with strong underlying demand, leading to high prices, but with significant volatility due to policy shifts and mine output fluctuations. The market is moving towards a structural deficit, supporting higher prices long-term

「中東戦争後の世界経済：誰が適応し、誰が脆弱か」 原油価格が100ドルを突破し、世界経済を揺るがす――危機を好機に変える中国から、エネルギー構造改革を迫られる日本と欧州まで。 SO OK TRADING がまとめる「適応する国」と「脆弱な国」の全体像。エネルギーは単なる燃料ではなく、世界経済の構造変革を加速させる原動力となっている。 FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE