「アルミスクラップ = リサイクル世界の新しい黄金 : 循環型経済を駆動する力、世界的資産へ — Aluminum Scrap 2026」 : SO OK TRADING : 2026年5月30日

he Thai baht in Q1 2026 is expected to strengthen against the US dollar, driven primarily by a weaker dollar globally, a seasonal tourism boost, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This strength is occurring despite a weak domestic economic outlook and the Bank of Thailand's (BoT) likely continued easing of its policy rate. Exchange Rate Drivers and Forecast External Factors: The primary driver for the strengthening baht is external, mainly the broad weakness of the US dollar as global markets price in expected Fed rate cuts. The baht is also correlated with global gold prices, which have been climbing. Tourism High Season: The period extending into Q1 2026 is the high season for tourism, which typically brings in foreign currency and supports the baht's value. Policy Divergence: The BoT is expected to continue its easing cycle, potentially cutting the policy rate further to 1.00% by Q1 2026 to stimulate the sluggish domestic economy. This divergence from a potentially less aggressive US Fed in Q1 could support the baht in the short term, though some analysts warn the currency could weaken later in 2026. Forecasts: Projections for 2026 generally place the baht in a range of 30.80–33.00 per US dollar. Some models estimate it could trade around 31.06 by the end of Q1. A persistently strong baht below 31 per US$ is seen as a significant risk to the Thai export and tourism sectors. Key Economic Context Weak Growth: Thailand's economy is expected to slow down to a 5-year low growth rate of around 1.6-1.8% in 2026, pressured by US tariffs, global trade tensions, and high household debt. The central bank chief expects an improvement in Q1 2026 after a weak second half of 2025. Political Uncertainty: A general election expected in February 2026 could also introduce volatility, though some historical trends suggest the baht may strengthen following the formation of a new government. Low Inflation: Headline inflation is projected to remain subdued or even negative, providing the central bank with justification for further rate cuts to stimulate demand. In summary, Q1 2026 is characterized by a strong and volatile baht driven by external factors, contrasting sharply with a weak domestic economy and accommodative monetary policy.

「タイの天然ゴム：農園から世界戦略商品へ」 公開日：2026年3月28日 タイは単なるゴム生産国ではなく、世界市場をリードする存在です。天然ゴム輸出のシェアは30%以上を占め、世界の自動車産業、医療、建設分野に欠かせない資源となっています。本記事では、タイのゴムの強みから、EV時代とグリーン経済（BCG）における未来の方向性までを詳しく解説します。