SO OK TRADING 洞察： 「开启铝浆新世界 —— 未来材料的力量，革新AAC产业」 : 2026年10月29日

黄金与泰铢分析（2026年10月21日） SO OK TRADING | FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE 全球黄金市场依然“维持在关键支撑区间”，此前自年初高点大幅回调。与此同时，泰铢兑美元仍处于偏弱区间（约33.60泰铢/美元），使得国内黄金价格依旧稳居在65,000泰铢以上。

2026年的锌市场，已经不仅仅是价格与供需的故事。锌正在经历一场重大转型：从传统的基础工业金属，逐步迈向支撑全球清洁能源与新技术的战略性金属。 它不再只是用于防锈和建筑的材料，而是成为电动车锌空气电池的核心，以及太阳能与风能基础设施不可或缺的一环。尽管短期内市场面临供过于求的挑战，但在背后，锌正打开一扇通往未来的窗口 —— 一个以可持续发展和零碳目标为核心的新时代。

he Thai baht in Q1 2026 is expected to strengthen against the US dollar, driven primarily by a weaker dollar globally, a seasonal tourism boost, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This strength is occurring despite a weak domestic economic outlook and the Bank of Thailand's (BoT) likely continued easing of its policy rate. Exchange Rate Drivers and Forecast External Factors: The primary driver for the strengthening baht is external, mainly the broad weakness of the US dollar as global markets price in expected Fed rate cuts. The baht is also correlated with global gold prices, which have been climbing. Tourism High Season: The period extending into Q1 2026 is the high season for tourism, which typically brings in foreign currency and supports the baht's value. Policy Divergence: The BoT is expected to continue its easing cycle, potentially cutting the policy rate further to 1.00% by Q1 2026 to stimulate the sluggish domestic economy. This divergence from a potentially less aggressive US Fed in Q1 could support the baht in the short term, though some analysts warn the currency could weaken later in 2026. Forecasts: Projections for 2026 generally place the baht in a range of 30.80–33.00 per US dollar. Some models estimate it could trade around 31.06 by the end of Q1. A persistently strong baht below 31 per US$ is seen as a significant risk to the Thai export and tourism sectors. Key Economic Context Weak Growth: Thailand's economy is expected to slow down to a 5-year low growth rate of around 1.6-1.8% in 2026, pressured by US tariffs, global trade tensions, and high household debt. The central bank chief expects an improvement in Q1 2026 after a weak second half of 2025. Political Uncertainty: A general election expected in February 2026 could also introduce volatility, though some historical trends suggest the baht may strengthen following the formation of a new government. Low Inflation: Headline inflation is projected to remain subdued or even negative, providing the central bank with justification for further rate cuts to stimulate demand. In summary, Q1 2026 is characterized by a strong and volatile baht driven by external factors, contrasting sharply with a weak domestic economy and accommodative monetary policy.