《霍尔木兹战争：当物流与塑料包装成为全球贸易的脆弱点》 （SO OK TRADING 撰文 · 2026年3月29日）

he Thai baht in Q1 2026 is expected to strengthen against the US dollar, driven primarily by a weaker dollar globally, a seasonal tourism boost, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This strength is occurring despite a weak domestic economic outlook and the Bank of Thailand's (BoT) likely continued easing of its policy rate. Exchange Rate Drivers and Forecast External Factors: The primary driver for the strengthening baht is external, mainly the broad weakness of the US dollar as global markets price in expected Fed rate cuts. The baht is also correlated with global gold prices, which have been climbing. Tourism High Season: The period extending into Q1 2026 is the high season for tourism, which typically brings in foreign currency and supports the baht's value. Policy Divergence: The BoT is expected to continue its easing cycle, potentially cutting the policy rate further to 1.00% by Q1 2026 to stimulate the sluggish domestic economy. This divergence from a potentially less aggressive US Fed in Q1 could support the baht in the short term, though some analysts warn the currency could weaken later in 2026. Forecasts: Projections for 2026 generally place the baht in a range of 30.80–33.00 per US dollar. Some models estimate it could trade around 31.06 by the end of Q1. A persistently strong baht below 31 per US$ is seen as a significant risk to the Thai export and tourism sectors. Key Economic Context Weak Growth: Thailand's economy is expected to slow down to a 5-year low growth rate of around 1.6-1.8% in 2026, pressured by US tariffs, global trade tensions, and high household debt. The central bank chief expects an improvement in Q1 2026 after a weak second half of 2025. Political Uncertainty: A general election expected in February 2026 could also introduce volatility, though some historical trends suggest the baht may strengthen following the formation of a new government. Low Inflation: Headline inflation is projected to remain subdued or even negative, providing the central bank with justification for further rate cuts to stimulate demand. In summary, Q1 2026 is characterized by a strong and volatile baht driven by external factors, contrasting sharply with a weak domestic economy and accommodative monetary policy.

「霍尔木兹海峡沸腾 —— 全球物流震荡，运费爆炸性飙升」 SUPPLY & DEMAND SHOCK 来自中东 | 2026年3月13日 SO OK TRADING 撰文 伊朗事实上的封锁霍尔木兹海峡并袭击商船，使全球约30%的石油运输立即中断。原油价格突破每桶150美元，短短几天内海运费率暴涨2至3倍。 - 40尺集装箱运费：从3,500美元 ➜ 飙升至10,000美元以上 - 全球范围内加收紧急附加费、战争风险费和燃油附加费 - 泰国－中国 / 泰国－日本航线受重创：集装箱短缺，出口延迟 - 世界正进入“全球供应链重置”时代，高成本与剧烈波动成为新的常态

LME金属市场分析 : SO OK TRADING : 2026年9月8日 「铜价飙升创历史新高 — 铝价高位企稳 — 锌供应紧张，基础金属成为全球经济的核心」 ✨ 前言 2026年9月8日，全球金属市场迎来了历史性的一刻。伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价突破每吨14,533美元，创下历史新高。这反映了美国进口关税政策的压力以及全球供应紧张的局面。 与此同时，铝、锌、锡和镍等其他金属的走势，也揭示了全球经济结构的深刻变化——从传统工业时代迈向人工智能、数据中心和可再生能源的新时代。