“Hormuz War: When Logistics and Plastic Packaging Become the Fragile Points of Global Trade” (Article by SO OK TRADING · March 29, 2026)

Global Market Q2/2026: Middle East War Creates a “Double Crisis” in Logistics & Packaging

Article by SO OK TRADING · March 29, 2026

 
Political & Energy Situation

Prolonged War: Military operations are expected to last 4–6 weeks, covering almost the entire month of April.
Oil Price Surge: Brent crude has reached $90/barrel and may climb to $110–130 in Q2.
Global Slowdown: IMF and S&P Global have downgraded 2026 GDP forecasts due to energy shocks and renewed inflationary pressures.
 

Logistics & Freight: The Weakest Link

Hormuz Strait Closure: Vessel traffic has dropped from 60 ships/day to just 8–10 ships/day.
Freight Costs Soaring: Shipping lines impose War Risk Surcharge ($1,500/TEU) and Emergency Conflict Surcharge ($2,000–4,000/container).
Cape of Good Hope Detour: Adds 10–15 days to transit time and raises costs by over 20%.
Container Shortage: Delays at ports prevent containers from returning to Asia, causing severe shortages by May.
Air Freight Spike +70%: Essential goods (pharmaceuticals, food) shift to air cargo, driving Asia–Europe rates sharply higher.
 

Raw Materials & Packaging

Urea Fertilizer: Prices soar to $700/ton, with supply down more than 35%.
Sulfur: Expected to exceed $800/ton, impacting Asia’s semiconductor and battery industries.
Plastic Resins (PP/PE): Prices jumped 37–38% in a single month, cutting packaging producers’ net margins by 1–2%.
Plastic Packaging Crisis:
Resin costs up 50–60%
Finished packaging (bags, films, bottles) prices up 20–100%
Container shortage delays packaging shipments
Asia most at risk, relying on Middle East supply for over 40%
 

Impact on Thailand: Industry & Agriculture

Farmers’ Costs Rising: April marks the start of higher fertilizer and diesel expenses.
Export Slowdown: Middle East and European markets face high freight costs and container shortages.
Packaging Costs: Thai food and beverage exporters face rising packaging expenses, shrinking net profits despite higher selling prices.
 

Thai Agricultural Products Q2/2026

Rice: Prices rise due to stockpiling in the Middle East and Africa, but fertilizer costs squeeze margins.
Sugar: Stable to rising, linked to oil prices; Brazil may divert cane to ethanol production.
Cassava: Sharpest price surge, driven by demand for ethanol and animal feed; production falls due to disease.
Rubber: Prices climb with synthetic rubber; demand rises from tire and glove industries.
 

Summary for Thai Exporters

Container Crisis + Packaging Crisis: Low-value goods risk rejection by shipping lines, while packaging costs rise simultaneously.
Market Strategy: Focus on RCEP (ASEAN, China, Japan, Korea) to avoid risks in Europe and the Middle East.
Sales Strategy: Adopt flexible pricing and contract structures to manage volatile freight costs.
 

✨ Conclusion

Q2/2026 will be the most challenging quarter of the year for Thai businesses. Rising raw material prices, transport difficulties, container shortages, and packaging crises combine to push costs higher on multiple fronts. Exporters who adapt quickly and target safer markets will have the best chance of maintaining competitiveness amid this “double crisis.”

 

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