战争推高金属价格！铝价2026——战略金属突破天花板，当能源短缺、霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，全球进入原材料争夺之年：SO OK TRADING 撰文

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs

铝锭 Sow vs. 重熔块：再生金属巨擘，推动全球经济迈向 Net Zero 时代 SO OK TRADING – 2026年5月18日 在全球产业加速迈入 Net Zero 时代的今天，铝不再只是普通的原材料，而是推动循环经济（Circular Economy）的“可见能源”。 今天，我们将带您认识再生行业的两位主角 —— 铝锭 Sow（Sow Ingot） 与 重熔块（Remelt Block）。它们正改变着世界工业的格局，从大型熔炉到一般铸造厂都不可或缺。 铝锭 Sow：巨型铝块，重量可达数百至数千公斤，需叉车或起重机搬运，适合大型熔炉（Reverb Furnaces），优势在于单位成本低，适合大规模运输与生产。 重熔块/锭：体积较小，重量在 5–100 公斤之间，可人工或传送带搬运，熔化速度快，灵活性高，适合中小型铸造厂，可分批加入炉中以控制温度与合金成分。 两者都是关键齿轮，与从铝土矿生产相比，可节省 95% 的能源，并帮助企业规避欧洲的碳关税（CBAM）。 泰国同样表现突出 —— 我们是东盟再生铝与中下游加工的中心，尤其在 EEC（春武里–罗勇） 区域，随着电动车与清洁能源产业的崛起，对铝锭 Sow 的需求正在快速增长。 ✨ 铝锭 Sow 不只是巨型金属块，而是通往绿色未来循环经济的桥梁。 SO OK TRADING 将始终是您值得信赖的商业伙伴 —— 从高品质金属供应到迈向零碳世界，我们与您并肩前行。