中国2026：全球再平衡，经济格局重塑 —— 泰国必须做好准备 （SO OK TRADING 撰文）

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs

泰国玉米产业：全球市场 SO OK TRADING 出品 泰国是全球玉米产业的重要参与者之一，不仅在家畜饲料方面发挥关键作用，在消费出口方面也占据重要地位。尤其是甜玉米，泰国稳居世界第一出口国。 这份信息图总结了泰国与全球玉米市场的五大关键维度： - 饲料玉米：种植面积约700万莱，但产量仍不足以满足国内需求 - 消费玉米：泰国甜玉米出口世界第一，并延伸至生物塑料和纤维纺织等新产业 - 成本结构与环境挑战：生产成本高，PM2.5问题，以及新的“禁烧认证”标准 - 进口：每年300–400万吨，主要来自老挝、缅甸、柬埔寨，需符合含水率标准并通过溯源认证 - 市场价格：国内外均呈现强劲上涨趋势（Bullish），CBOT市场亦保持上升态势

SO OK TRADING：2026年2月美元走势简报 美元持续走弱，不仅兑泰铢贬值，也在全球主要货币面前节节败退。 泰铢强势上涨，进口商迎来成本优势，出口商则面临定价压力。 我们为泰国企业梳理趋势、关键驱动因素与应对策略：