“Peace Restored, Metals on Fire! Hormuz Strait Reopens, Global Supply Unlocked – Copper Surges, Aluminium Plunges, Zinc Fragile, Lead Oversupplied. In‑Depth Analysis of the Global Metals Market After the USA–IRAN Agreement”
“Peace Restored, Metals Ignite! Hormuz Strait Reopens, Global Supply Unlocked – Copper Surges, Aluminium Plunges, Zinc Fragile, Lead Oversupplied” : SO OK TRADING | 16 June 2026
With the USA–IRAN agreement and the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, the global metals market (LME) has reignited overnight! The easing of geopolitical tensions has “unlocked” the supply chain for base metals, driving prices in sharply different directions depending on the metal.
Some, like Aluminium, are correcting downward as inventories rebound, while Copper is soaring on demand from AI and clean energy. Zinc remains balanced but vulnerable to industrial recovery, and Lead faces oversupply due to the EV transition away from lead-acid batteries.
Global Metals Market Analysis: Price + Stock + Situation
Copper: $13,500 – $13,800/ton. LME stocks ~361,600 tons (strategic build). Demand from AI, EV, and renewable energy is absorbing supply quickly. Cancelled Warrants up nearly 30% → squeeze risk.
Aluminium: $3,300 – $3,550/ton. Stocks ~322,000 tons (recovering from yearly low). Severe backwardation easing, supply gradually returning. Live Warrants at 77.8%.
Zinc: $3,500 – $3,600/ton. Stocks ~107,750 tons (very low). Steel & auto recovery could trigger backwardation. Currently mild contango.
Lead: $1,950 – $2,020/ton. Stocks rising (+14,000 tons). EV shift reduces lead-acid battery demand. Market in contango with 98.4% live warrants.
Nickel & Tin: Nickel $17,600 – $19,100/ton (volatile, driven by Indonesian battery output). Tin $53,300 – $55,400/ton (Myanmar mine closures & crackdown on illegal mining).
Silver & Antimony: Silver $28.50 – $32.00/oz (safe haven + solar demand). Antimony $24,000 – $26,000/ton (tight supply from China export restrictions).
Key Insight: The global metals market is split into two clear camps:
Correction metals (Aluminium, Lead) → prices falling as stocks recover
Demand-driven metals (Copper, Tin, Silver, Antimony) → prices holding strong on long-term structural demand
Investors must time their entry carefully to seize opportunities in this post-war transition.
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