“Aluminum Heats Up! MJP Surges to a 11-Year High – Tracking Premiums and Global Prices in Q3/2026 as Supply Tightens, Thailand Must Adapt | SO OK TRADING Global Aluminum Market Analysis” 11 JUNE 2026
MJP Premium Set to Hit New High Again & Aluminum Cash Price Outlook Q3/2026 : SO OK TRADING : 11 JUNE 2026
Japan Market Overview (MJP Premium)
For Q3/2026, Japan’s aluminum premium (MJP) offers opened at $460–$480/MT, but final settlements are expected in the range of $355–$400/MT, higher than Q2/2026 levels of $350–$353/MT, marking a new 11-year high.
Producers: Rio Tinto and South32 set higher offers reflecting shipping costs and geopolitical risks.
Buyers: Japan and ASEAN aim to push prices down to $400–$440/MT due to sufficient stock and slowing demand.
⚖️ Aluminum Market Drivers
Bullish Factors: Middle East supply crisis (Hormuz Strait closure), Guinea bauxite export quotas, declining LME stocks.
Bearish Factors: Japanese buyers resisting prices above $400/MT, Asian manufacturing PMI below 50 indicating demand contraction.
MJP Premium Scenarios Q3/2026
Base Case (60%): $355–$400/MT → Buyers accept higher prices but still negotiate.
Bull Case (30%): $410–$450/MT → Severe supply disruptions.
Bear Case (10%): < $350/MT → Transport issues ease.
LME Cash Price Situation
In June 2026, LME cash prices trade at $3,450–$3,700/MT, up over 19% year-to-date, the highest in 4 years.
Support Levels: $3,200–$3,400/MT
Resistance Levels: $3,800–$4,000/MT
Key Drivers:
Middle East smelters EGA and ALBA disrupted, declaring Force Majeure.
China near its production cap of 45.5 million tons, limiting further output.
Europe’s CBAM and U.S. tariffs pushing eco-friendly aluminum prices higher.
Impact on Thailand (CIF Premium)
Q3/2026 CIF Thailand Premium forecast: $370–$420/MT. Estimated total cost: ~$4,150/MT (approx. 138,000–150,000 THB/ton).
Demand Trends: Strong in EV & electronics, weak in construction.
Rising Transport Costs: Freight & insurance up due to rerouting around conflict zones.
Competition from China: Cheap semi-finished imports pressuring Thai smelters.
Australia Supply – Key Alternative
Portland Aluminium: 358,000 MT/year → Increased output from new energy contract starting July 2026.
Tomago Aluminium: 590,000 MT/year → Running at full capacity, investing AUD 1 billion in renewable transition.
Both brands provide the most stable supply amid Middle East risks.
Strategies for Thai Buyers
Lock in part of the premium via forward contracts.
Increase domestic scrap usage to reduce imports.
Monitor USD/THB exchange rates closely.
Source from Australia for stability (though current capacity is fully booked).
✨ Summary The global aluminum market is in a phase of “tight supply + split demand,” keeping both MJP Premium and LME Cash prices elevated. Thai businesses should restructure procurement strategies by combining forward contracts, scrap utilization, and stable supply sources from Australia to maintain competitiveness amid rising costs.
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