為替・金相場の激動予測：選挙と旧正月の週に注目！ 米ドル弱含み、金価格は5,000ドル突破目前 ― 投資家必見の戦略を解説 SO OK TRADINGによるマーケット分析

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs

SO OK TRADING – Zinc Ingot 2026 高純度SHG亜鉛インゴット 世界の産業をつなぐ原材料として、インフラ、自動車、クリーンエネルギー、化学・農業分野まで幅広く活躍。 2026年LME価格動向の最新情報を提供し、確かな事業計画をサポートします。

「春節後の金相場 2026：調整して次の上昇へ」 年初に金価格は力強く上昇しましたが、20年の統計どおり春節後には一時的な調整局面に入りました。 しかし全体像は依然として「強気相場」であり、今年中に新高値を更新する可能性があります。 戦略のポイント：価格が押し目をつけた時に少しずつ買い増しすること。