「Copper Fever 2026: 世界を揺るがす銅の熱狂 ― 戦略金属の時代の価格展望」 SO OK TRADING : 2026年8月6日

世界シリコンメタル市場 2026–2033：クリーンエネルギーとスマートテクノロジー時代への転換点 シリコンメタル —— かつて単なる基礎素材と見なされていたこの金属は、今や世界経済の新しい「心臓部」となりつつあります。軽量かつ強靭な素材を必要とする 電気自動車（EV）、持続可能な未来を支える 太陽光発電（Solar PV）、そしてデジタル社会を動かす 半導体チップ に至るまで、幅広い産業を支える不可欠な存在です。 2026年、世界のシリコン市場は狭いレンジで推移していますが、エネルギーコストの上昇や需要の回復が後押しとなり、特に 2026年第4四半期から2027年第1四半期 にかけて大きな転換点を迎えると予測されています。 SO OK TRADING は、価格動向、市場展望、そして調達戦略に関する深いインサイトを提供し、世界のシリコンメタル市場における新たなビジネスチャンスをいち早く捉えるお手伝いをいたします。 SO OK TRADING — FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE

he Thai baht in Q1 2026 is expected to strengthen against the US dollar, driven primarily by a weaker dollar globally, a seasonal tourism boost, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This strength is occurring despite a weak domestic economic outlook and the Bank of Thailand's (BoT) likely continued easing of its policy rate. Exchange Rate Drivers and Forecast External Factors: The primary driver for the strengthening baht is external, mainly the broad weakness of the US dollar as global markets price in expected Fed rate cuts. The baht is also correlated with global gold prices, which have been climbing. Tourism High Season: The period extending into Q1 2026 is the high season for tourism, which typically brings in foreign currency and supports the baht's value. Policy Divergence: The BoT is expected to continue its easing cycle, potentially cutting the policy rate further to 1.00% by Q1 2026 to stimulate the sluggish domestic economy. This divergence from a potentially less aggressive US Fed in Q1 could support the baht in the short term, though some analysts warn the currency could weaken later in 2026. Forecasts: Projections for 2026 generally place the baht in a range of 30.80–33.00 per US dollar. Some models estimate it could trade around 31.06 by the end of Q1. A persistently strong baht below 31 per US$ is seen as a significant risk to the Thai export and tourism sectors. Key Economic Context Weak Growth: Thailand's economy is expected to slow down to a 5-year low growth rate of around 1.6-1.8% in 2026, pressured by US tariffs, global trade tensions, and high household debt. The central bank chief expects an improvement in Q1 2026 after a weak second half of 2025. Political Uncertainty: A general election expected in February 2026 could also introduce volatility, though some historical trends suggest the baht may strengthen following the formation of a new government. Low Inflation: Headline inflation is projected to remain subdued or even negative, providing the central bank with justification for further rate cuts to stimulate demand. In summary, Q1 2026 is characterized by a strong and volatile baht driven by external factors, contrasting sharply with a weak domestic economy and accommodative monetary policy.