「世界の原油価格、過去3か月で最大の下落 ― 供給解放・需要減退、タイは恩恵を受けるが市場は要警戒」: SO OK TRADING : 2026年6月15日

「STR 20 ゴム革命：『カップランプ』からEV産業の戦略資材へ

he Thai baht in Q1 2026 is expected to strengthen against the US dollar, driven primarily by a weaker dollar globally, a seasonal tourism boost, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This strength is occurring despite a weak domestic economic outlook and the Bank of Thailand's (BoT) likely continued easing of its policy rate. Exchange Rate Drivers and Forecast External Factors: The primary driver for the strengthening baht is external, mainly the broad weakness of the US dollar as global markets price in expected Fed rate cuts. The baht is also correlated with global gold prices, which have been climbing. Tourism High Season: The period extending into Q1 2026 is the high season for tourism, which typically brings in foreign currency and supports the baht's value. Policy Divergence: The BoT is expected to continue its easing cycle, potentially cutting the policy rate further to 1.00% by Q1 2026 to stimulate the sluggish domestic economy. This divergence from a potentially less aggressive US Fed in Q1 could support the baht in the short term, though some analysts warn the currency could weaken later in 2026. Forecasts: Projections for 2026 generally place the baht in a range of 30.80–33.00 per US dollar. Some models estimate it could trade around 31.06 by the end of Q1. A persistently strong baht below 31 per US$ is seen as a significant risk to the Thai export and tourism sectors. Key Economic Context Weak Growth: Thailand's economy is expected to slow down to a 5-year low growth rate of around 1.6-1.8% in 2026, pressured by US tariffs, global trade tensions, and high household debt. The central bank chief expects an improvement in Q1 2026 after a weak second half of 2025. Political Uncertainty: A general election expected in February 2026 could also introduce volatility, though some historical trends suggest the baht may strengthen following the formation of a new government. Low Inflation: Headline inflation is projected to remain subdued or even negative, providing the central bank with justification for further rate cuts to stimulate demand. In summary, Q1 2026 is characterized by a strong and volatile baht driven by external factors, contrasting sharply with a weak domestic economy and accommodative monetary policy.

ディープダイブ分析 : Mid West Japan Premium (MJP) Q4/2026 大幅下落と購買戦略 日本のアルミニウム市場（Mid West Japan Premium – MJP）は、2026年第4四半期に大きな転換点を迎えています。前四半期には過去10年間で最高値となる $395/mt を記録しましたが、10月〜12月の契約交渉では市場の方向性が明確に反転し、Seller’s Market から Buyer’s Market へと完全に移行しました。 中東地域の供給回復、欧州および米国のプレミアム低下、そして日本の買い手による強い価格交渉圧力が重なり、価格は 29〜34% 下落し、$260〜$280/mt のレンジに収束する見込みです。これは、買い手側の交渉力が過去数年で最も強く表れる構造的な変化を示しています。 本分析では、SO OK TRADING が市場の全側面を深掘りします。主要なドライバー、精緻な価格予測、そして 自動車、半導体、建設 産業への影響までを網羅し、購買担当者が2026年末に向けて確実なコスト戦略を立てられるよう支援します。 ✨ SO OK TRADING – FAST | SHARP | RELIABLE 金属市場を深く理解するビジネスパートナーとして、戦略的な意思決定を支える確かなインサイトを提供します。