「Trump–Xi Summit 2026：世界を揺るがすビッグディール ― 経済・エネルギー・テクノロジーの殴り合いゲーム」：SO OK TRADING：2026年5月14日

タイ産キャッサバ 2026年 – 世界市場のスターへ 輸出価格は堅調、中国と中東からの需要が急増。 タイの輸出量は 8.25百万トン を突破し、次の目標は 機能性スターチ と バイオプラスチック。 SO OK TRADING は、品質と持続可能性を武器に、タイ産キャッサバを世界市場へと導きます。

2026年2月20日 – 「世界関税」が米国最高裁により停止 しかしゲームはまだ終わらない… ドナルド・トランプ大統領が即座に「反撃」し、世界に新たな10％関税を導入！ ドルは下落 金価格は急騰 株式市場は反発 世界の通貨は大きく変動 貴金属は再びセーフヘイブンへ SO OK TRADINGによる完全分析記事では、世界経済・為替・株式市場・安全資産への影響を解説し、「高ボラティリティ」時代に備える戦略を提示します。 英語版インフォグラフィックで要点をチェック 農産品・工業製品・クリーンエネルギー燃料のご注文はぜひ当社へ www.sooktrading.com sooktrading@outlook.com

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs