「FERROUS & NON FERROUS 2026：金属高騰 世界経済を揺るがす ― エネルギー戦争と戦略金属が世界を震撼させる」：SO OK TRADING：2026年5月2日

「中東戦争後の世界 2026 — 世界経済の転換点とタイビジネスの新たなチャンス」 爆音が止んだ後、世界は「元の正常」には戻らず、むしろ「構造的回復期」に突入しました。エネルギー、金属、肥料から物流・金融に至るまで、すべての産業が新しいコスト構造へとリセットされ、先を見据える企業に大きなチャンスが開かれています。 原油とナフサ価格は下落を続け、石油化学やプラスチックのコストが軽減。輸送コストも正常化し、農業は肥料価格の安定により支援を受けています。鉄鋼、アルミニウム、銅などの重工業も、クリーンエネルギーやEV需要の高まりに合わせて回復の兆しを見せています。 2026年の世界経済は依然として高インフレに直面していますが、2027年には明確な緩和傾向が期待されます。各国中央銀行は金融政策の緩和を示唆し、投資家は新興市場に再び注目。タイは生産と物流の地域拠点として大きな可能性を秘めています。 戦争の終結は「変化の終わり」ではなく、「新たな機会の始まり」です。コスト低下、物流復活、資本還流という環境の中で、タイ企業は未来を見据えた戦略的な一歩を踏み出すべき時です。 SO OK TRADING 変化の速い世界でのあなたのビジネスパートナー

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs

新時代の貴金属 —— 銀と金が史上最高値を更新 2026年1月は、貴金属市場にとって歴史的な月となりました。 - 銀（Silver）：初めて100ドル/オンスを突破 → タイ国内価格は1kgあたり約103,000バーツに到達 （1か月で+37%、前年同月比+220%） - 金（Gold）：史上最高値の4,889ドル/オンスを記録 → タイ国内価格は1バーツ重量あたり約73,350バーツに急騰 （1か月で+13%）