アルミニウム高騰！価格急騰・プレミアム上昇・供給不足 ― 世界金属市場分析 2026年4月 SO OK TRADINGによる記事：2026年4月16日

銅は電化とクリーンエネルギーの新時代へ飛躍 2026年3月、銅価格は供給不足とEV・クリーンエネルギー・AIデータセンターからの強い需要により、米国とイランの地政学的緊張の中で力強く上昇を続けています。

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs

2026年3月7日 石油戦争：米国とイスラエルがイランの石油貯蔵施設を攻撃し、世界は大規模なオイルショックへ 2026年3月7日、世界は一瞬で揺れ動きました。米国とイスラエルがテヘランの石油貯蔵施設を攻撃し、紛争は急速に拡大。そして翌日、イランはホルムズ海峡の封鎖を正式に発表しました。世界の原油の20%以上が通過する戦略的航路が止まり、世界経済はかつてないオイルショックに突入しました。 原油価格：Brentは65–70ドルから急騰し、現在92ドルを突破。120–150ドルに達する可能性も。 金価格：戦争前は4,800ドル前後、現在は5,300–5,400ドル/オンス。6,000ドル超えの可能性も。 為替：ドルは急騰、安全資産として評価。円・人民元・タイバーツはエネルギーコスト上昇で下落。 株式市場：アジア太平洋市場は大幅下落。投資家は金など安全資産へ逃避。 これは単なる中東の戦争ではありません。世界中のコスト、投資、そして私たちの財布に直接影響を与える衝撃です。 SO OK TRADING はリアルタイムで状況を追跡し、不確実な時代に信頼できるビジネスパートナーとして皆様を支えます。 FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE 詳しくは www.sooktrading.com