「銅価格急騰！Copper Surge: 2026年4月 — 中東戦争・貿易政策・中国の硫酸輸出制限が世界の銅市場を揺るがす」 — SO OK TRADING による記事

銅板：戦略的原材料と2026年の世界銅価格の見通し SO OK TRADINGより 2026年は、銅が単なるコモディティから「戦略的資産」へと格上げされる年です。AI、電気自動車（EV）、クリーンエネルギーの急成長により、銅の需要はかつてないほど高まり、価格は1トンあたり13,000米ドルを超える歴史的高値を記録しています。 供給面では、インドネシア、チリ、コンゴなどの主要鉱山の操業停止や新規鉱山開発の遅れにより、世界市場は15万〜33万トンの供給不足に直面しています。 SO OK TRADINGは、銅板（カソード銅 99.99%）を中心に、EV用バスバー、PCB、熱交換器、スイッチボード、高級建築素材など、幅広い用途に対応する高品質な原材料を提供しています。

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs

2026年の亜鉛市場は、もはや価格や供給過剰の問題だけではありません。亜鉛は従来の基礎産業用金属から、世界をクリーンエネルギーと新技術へと導く未来の戦略的金属へと大きく変貌を遂げようとしています。 鉄鋼の防錆材や建設資材としての役割を超え、亜鉛は今や電気自動車（EV）用の亜鉛空気電池や再生可能エネルギーインフラに不可欠な存在となりつつあります。供給過剰という短期的な課題の裏側には、持続可能な社会を支える新たな可能性が広がっているのです。