「2026年: グリーン経済とスマート農業への転換期 — グリーンエネルギーは生き残りの道、農業は富の源。タイは木質ペレット、キャッサバ、ドリアンという世界が求めるスター商品で世界市場に挑む」

タイの果物が中国市場を席巻！2024–2027 黄金の輸出時代 タイは依然として中国への生鮮果物輸出第1位を維持し、ドリアン・マンゴスチン・ロンガン・ココナッツ・ナムドクマイマンゴーなど幅広い人気を獲得。さらに乾燥果物や急成長するEC市場の新トレンドも加わり、需要はますます拡大しています。

Copper prices are expected to remain elevated and bullish in 2026, driven by strong demand from the green energy transition (EVs, renewables, grid upgrades) and persistent mine supply constraints/disruptions, with forecasts generally placing prices in the $10,000 to over $12,000 per tonne range, although some analysts foresee a slight cooling to $10,000-$11,000 as market balances tighten. Key factors include IRA spending, AI infrastructure needs, constrained new mine supply, and potential Chinese economic recovery, creating tight markets despite some projected minor surpluses. Key Price Predictions (2026): Goldman Sachs: $10,000 - $11,000/tonne range, averaging $10,710/tonne in H1 2026. J.P. Morgan: Averaging around $12,075/tonne, with potential spikes to $12,500/tonne in Q2. Bank of America: Average of $11,313/tonne, with potential for $15,000/tonne spikes. UBS: $11,000/tonne by Sept 2026. World Bank: Average of $9,800/tonne. Bullish Drivers: Energy Transition: Massive demand for grid expansion, EVs, and renewable infrastructure. AI Infrastructure: Increased demand for data centers. Supply Deficit: Mine disruptions (Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, etc.) and difficulty bringing new mines online. China: Potential economic rebound acting as a catalyst. Potential Headwinds/Volatility: Policy-induced Surpluses: E.g., from IRA incentives or scrap availability. Stronger USD: Can weigh on commodity prices. Slower Demand: If China's recovery falters. Overall Outlook: Expect a tight market with strong underlying demand, leading to high prices, but with significant volatility due to policy shifts and mine output fluctuations. The market is moving towards a structural deficit, supporting higher prices long-term

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs