SO OK TRADING | FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE — 每周黄金洞察：全球金市升温！今晚CPI数据或将改写走势 : 2026年10月14日

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs

全球塑料危机2026：战争与石脑油撼动产业 SO OK TRADING | 2026年4月5日 塑料——曾经是日常生活的基础原料，如今却成为“稀缺商品”，在2026年4月震撼全球。 中东战争与石脑油短缺对石化产业造成巨大冲击，塑料价格急剧飙升，影响范围从食品包装到汽车零部件，几乎覆盖所有行业。 本文将深入解析： 危机根源：霍尔木兹海峡的封锁与中东工厂停产 价格与成本冲击：塑料价格在一个月内上涨超过37% 全球与泰国现状：各地区正面临严重短缺 应对之道：政府与企业正在加速推进的解决方案 这不仅仅是“价格上涨”，更是“供应短缺”，正在以前所未有的方式重塑全球产业格局。 SO OK TRADING 您的商业伙伴 FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE

2026年格陵兰：北极的战略宝库 SO OK TRADING 洞察 格陵兰——从偏远岛屿到全球资源中心 格陵兰在2026年已成为全球资源枢纽，拥有超过150万吨稀土、清洁能源潜力，以及重要的地缘政治角色。