《2026年锡市场：从基础金属到未来战略金属 —— 从食品罐到AI芯片，驱动科技与清洁能源的旅程》 SO OK TRADING ：2026年9月12日

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs

「中国撼动全球金属：铝产能触顶—铜供应短缺，点燃世界经济并震撼未来产业 Q3/2026」 SO OK TRADING｜2026年7月27日 中国正在2026年第三季度展开一场重大的经济布局。 “轻金属”铝已达到生产能力上限，而“战略金属”铜则陷入全球供应紧缺。这一结构性变化不仅震动全球市场，也对泰国产业产生深远影响，从能源、汽车到建筑与包装行业均受到波及。 在本次信息图中，我们将深入解析： 中国如何在Q3/2026重塑金属格局 为什么铜和铝的价格创下历史新高 泰国产业如何顺应全球潮流进行调整

停火后的世界：全球经济的关键转折点 美国与伊朗宣布 为期两周的临时停火，世界正处在重要的十字路口。即将在巴基斯坦举行的和平谈判，或许成为迈向 永久和平 以及缓解长期以来动摇全球经济的制裁的第一步。 原油价格暴跌超过15%，黄金突破每盎司4,800美元，美元走弱，而全球股市进入 风险偏好模式 (Risk-on)，投资者信心逐渐回升。 SO OK TRADING 总结了 黄金、股票、汇率与原油 的整体影响，并提出未来48小时全球必须关注的机遇与风险。 FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE 您的商业伙伴 — SO OK TRADING