《2026–2030年铅市场展望：再生铅——清洁能源与AI基础设施的新核心》 SO OK TRADING 撰文｜2026年4月19日

「STR20：全球橡胶产业的脊梁 —— 泰国橡胶的秘密武器，迎战EV与EUDR时代」 SO OK TRADING | 2026年8月28日 STR20（Standard Thai Rubber 20）是依据泰国农业部橡胶研究所制定的TSR（Technically Specified Rubber）标准生产的高品质天然橡胶。它是泰国生产和出口量最大的橡胶等级，被誉为“全球轮胎产业的脊梁”。 在2026年，STR20再次成为焦点。随着全球电动车（EV）市场的快速增长，以及欧洲EUDR环保法规的实施，具备可追溯性（Traceability）的泰国橡胶成为市场高度需求的高端产品。 最新STR20价格（FOB林查班港）为 79.66泰铢/公斤，预计年底将达到 85–90泰铢/公斤。强劲的需求与全球供应紧张共同推动价格持续上涨。 SO OK TRADING认为：“2026年是STR20的黄金年。” 泰国橡胶不仅在全球市场保持强势地位，更是未来轮胎产业发展的核心动力。 SO OK TRADING FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE

「2026年泰国钢铁业四重危机：转向绿色钢铁与下半年展望」 SO OK TRADING | 2026年6月24日 泰国钢铁产业正处于关键转折点——能源成本上涨、海运费飙升，以及廉价进口钢材的激烈竞争，令行业面临多重压力。但在危机中也孕育着新的机遇：全球正加速迈向 绿色钢铁（Green Steel） ——环保、可循环、符合国际标准的新趋势。 在本文中，SO OK TRADING 将深入解析：

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs