ADC12：电动车时代与能源高涨的战略材料 —— 铸造未来产业的铝合金英雄 SO OK TRADING 撰文 ｜ 2026年3月27日

中文版开场文案（Post Introduction） 波动重现，基本金属成为市场焦点。 2026年2月，铜、锡、铝、锌和铅的全球价格呈现出复杂的信号。从清洁能源的强劲需求，到供应链中断与货币政策收紧，推动市场的力量远不止表面所见。 在 SO OK TRADING，我们解读市场噪音，提供清晰洞察。 本信息图展示了关键价格区间、全球机构预测，以及投资者在动荡中寻找机会的战略指南。

Copper prices are expected to remain elevated and bullish in 2026, driven by strong demand from the green energy transition (EVs, renewables, grid upgrades) and persistent mine supply constraints/disruptions, with forecasts generally placing prices in the $10,000 to over $12,000 per tonne range, although some analysts foresee a slight cooling to $10,000-$11,000 as market balances tighten. Key factors include IRA spending, AI infrastructure needs, constrained new mine supply, and potential Chinese economic recovery, creating tight markets despite some projected minor surpluses. Key Price Predictions (2026): Goldman Sachs: $10,000 - $11,000/tonne range, averaging $10,710/tonne in H1 2026. J.P. Morgan: Averaging around $12,075/tonne, with potential spikes to $12,500/tonne in Q2. Bank of America: Average of $11,313/tonne, with potential for $15,000/tonne spikes. UBS: $11,000/tonne by Sept 2026. World Bank: Average of $9,800/tonne. Bullish Drivers: Energy Transition: Massive demand for grid expansion, EVs, and renewable infrastructure. AI Infrastructure: Increased demand for data centers. Supply Deficit: Mine disruptions (Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, etc.) and difficulty bringing new mines online. China: Potential economic rebound acting as a catalyst. Potential Headwinds/Volatility: Policy-induced Surpluses: E.g., from IRA incentives or scrap availability. Stronger USD: Can weigh on commodity prices. Slower Demand: If China's recovery falters. Overall Outlook: Expect a tight market with strong underlying demand, leading to high prices, but with significant volatility due to policy shifts and mine output fluctuations. The market is moving towards a structural deficit, supporting higher prices long-term

「战争–通胀–石油火热！下周全球市场进入风险回避模式」 下周（2026年3月23日至27日），全球投资者必须准备应对最高级别的波动。中东战争可能进一步升级，原油价格突破区间，美国和欧洲央行依然维持严格的货币政策，这些负面因素叠加，使市场全面进入 “风险回避（Risk-off）” 模式。 在这种环境下，投资策略必须从“追高”转向“逢低买入”。尤其是黄金、白银和原油等关键资产，正逐步进入战略性买入区间。 本帖将为您深入解析： - 黄金与白银的关键买入点 - 原油价格区间与短线交易策略 - 全球股市的疲软走势 - 战争局势最新进展及对FMCG的影响