Thai Sugar Trend and Movement 2026-2027

Introduction 

Thailand is a major global sugar exporter, ranking as the 3rd largest for raw sugar in 2023, primarily shipping significant volumes of raw and white sugar to Asian markets like Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Cambodia, with exports comprising about 70% of its total sugar output. Key players like Siam Sugar Export handle these shipments, supplying Asian nations with essential sugar products for various uses, with deals often valued in the millions. 

Key Aspects of Thai Sugar Exports:
Major Exporter: Thailand is a leading world exporter of raw sugar.

Primary Markets: Key destinations include Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Cambodia, Malaysia, and China.
Products: Exports consist mainly of raw sugar (around 53.8% in 2022) and white sugar (around 43.8% in 2022).
Export-Driven: The industry heavily relies on overseas markets, with about 70% of production sold internationally.
Major Players: Companies like Siam Sugar Export (part of the TRR Group) facilitate these exports. 
Recent Activity:
In 2023, Thailand exported $3.77 billion worth of raw sugar.
A significant deal was finalized in April 2025 for sugar exports to the Philippines, valued over THB 1 billion, Thailand's sugar industry is a crucial global supplier, focusing heavily on exports to its Asian neighbors, with strong market presence for both raw and refined sugar products. 

Thai  Sugar Industry Trend and it Outlook

Thai Sugar demand continued growth for Thailand’s sugar industry in 2025. Despite anticipated lower export prices, the sector is set for a significant boost from a substantial increase in sugarcane volume as drought conditions ease. This is expected to raise sugar production in the 2024/2025 crop year to 10.1 million tons from 92.0 million tons of cane.

While average export prices are projected to fall, the overall export value is set to increase due to a significant surge in export volume, estimated at 6.2 million tons. Early 2025 exports showed strong volume compensation for price reductions. This trend is expected to accelerate, driven by remaining domestic sugar stocks (over 4.6 million tons) and an increased focus on higher-priced white sugar exports. The domestic sugar consumption market is also forecast to grow to 56 billion baht, up 1.3%, supported by Thailand’s economic recovery.

However, the industry faces risks including global economic slowdown, drought, and geopolitical uncertainties. Long-term challenges involve adapting to the low-carbon economy, sustainability (ESG), and health trends. SCB EIC warns of potential rising production costs from carbon taxes and environmental standards, alongside slower consumer demand as healthier options gain traction.

Domestically, increased cane volume is expected to ease competition in procurement, boosting sugar and byproduct output and thus mill profitability. After a profit decline in 2024 due to lower output and high cane costs, listed sugar producers anticipate a recovery in 2025 with improved supply.

For sustainable future competition, operators should focus on brand development, product quality, alternative sugars (e.g., low-calorie), and ESG frameworks. Companies that build strong farmer relationships, maintain high efficiency, and adapt to health trends will gain a long-term advantage.

Future of Thai Sugar Export 

Thailand's sugar exports are poised for growth through 2025 and 2026, driven by increased production from better weather (La Niña), easing droughts, and higher sugarcane volumes, boosting export quantities despite potential dips in global prices. While facing long-term challenges like climate change, sustainability, and global economic shifts, the industry benefits from strong demand in key markets, expanding trade agreements, and strategic shifts towards higher-value white sugar, with projections showing increased export volumes significantly outweighing price drops. 

Key Drivers for Future Exports
Increased Production: The La Niña weather pattern brings favorable rainfall, boosting sugarcane output and sugar production for the 2025/2026 season.
Strong Export Volumes: Lower domestic stocks and higher production mean more sugar available for export, expected to reach 6.2-6.5 million tons in 2025.

Market Demand: Growing demand from downstream food & beverage industries, partly due to economic recovery and food security needs in importing countries.
Strategic Focus: A shift towards exporting higher-priced white sugar and exploring new trade agreements (FTAs). 

Challenges & Risks
Price Volatility: Global sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, though early 2025 saw volume compensate for price dips.
Climate Change: Future El Niño patterns could reduce yields in 2027-2028, impacting production.
Global Factors: Slowdowns in the global economy, geopolitical issues, and sustainability (ESG) trends pose long-term risks. 
Short-to-Medium Term Outlook (2025-2026)
Positive Growth: Expect higher export value due to volume surges, with projections for a significant rise in export value in 2025.
Industry Adaptation: Thailand's sugar sector is actively adopting sustainable practices (Bio-Circular-Green model) and digital tools to improve efficiency and reduce environmental impact. 
In essence, the outlook is positive for increased export volume and overall export value in the near term, supported by better growing conditions, though the industry must navigate global market dynamics and sustainability goals for long-term succes

------