“Global Aluminum Market Heats Up! Q3/2026 Price Correction but Premiums Surge to 11-Year High – A New Era of Rising Costs and Targeted Demand” SO OK TRADING | July 2, 2026
Global Aluminum Market Q3/2026 – Price Correction but Premiums Surge to 11-Year High
SO OK TRADING | July 2, 2026
Global Market Overview
The global aluminum market is currently in a “price correction” phase after hitting the highest level in four years earlier this year.
LME (London Metal Exchange): Averaging $3,100–$3,200/MT, down from $3,500+ in March–April.
SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange): Prices remain weak, in line with the global downtrend.
⚖️ Key Price Pressures
Middle East tensions eased → Supply risk reduced
Strong USD → Commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies
Short-term demand slowdown → Long-term prospects in AI and clean energy remain strong, but general manufacturing demand is still weak
Japanese MJP Premium Q3/2026 – Market Hotspot While LME prices are correcting, the Japanese Premium (MJP Premium) has surged to the highest level in 11 years.
Q2: $353/MT
Q3: Not yet announced, but expected around $370–$380/MT
Negotiation Status
Producer offers: Rio Tinto and South32 → $460–$480/MT
Buyer bids: Japan and ASEAN → $400–$440/MT
Expected settlement: $355–$400/MT (some forecasts suggest $450–$460/MT)
Middle East Supply Situation After war-related disruptions, major producers have resumed partial exports, rerouting shipments to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
Alba (Bahrain): Exporting 40–60% via the Red Sea (Jeddah port)
EGA (UAE): Using Sohar port in Oman; Al Taweelah smelter has restarted
Impact on Buyers
Deliveries continue but with longer lead times
Hidden costs remain high due to land transport and war-risk insurance
Aluminum Market Outlook (Updated July 2, 2026)
Q3/2026: Forecast range $3,100–$3,300/MT (Goldman Sachs revised target $3,300)
Full Year 2026: Average $3,200–$3,500/MT (World Bank forecast $3,200, +21.6% YoY)
2027: Expected to remain high at $2,950–$3,200/MT, supported by EV, AI, and clean energy demand
Bearish Factors
Middle East supply recovery
Strong USD
New production capacity in China and Indonesia
Bullish Factors
Strong demand from EVs, Data Centers, and Green Energy
LME stocks at the lowest level in nearly 10 years
Recommendations for Thai Buyers
Gradually purchase when LME falls below $3,100 → Key support level
Monitor THB exchange rate → A weaker baht may offset global price declines
Use MJP Premium as a practical cost indicator for inventory planning
✅ Price Summary (July 2026)
LME: $3,100–$3,200/MT
MJP Premium: $460–$480/MT (expected settlement $355–$400/MT)
CIF Laem Chabang (Thailand): $3,850–$4,100/MT (142,000–148,000 THB/MT)
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