“Thai Steel Outlook 2026: From Pressure to Green Steel Opportunities – SO OK TRADING’s Analysis of the 4 Cost Shocks and H2 Market Outlook” 24 June 2026
Thai Steel in 4-Crisis Shock: Turning the Game to Green Steel and Outlook for Steel & Scrap in H2 2026 SO OK TRADING | June 24, 2026
In 2026, Thailand’s steel and scrap industry is under pressure from all sides. Yet within crisis lies opportunity, as the world shifts toward Green Steel — eco-friendly recycled steel that is set to become the new market standard.
The “4-Crisis” Cost Shock
Expensive energy: Fuel oil and electricity prices keep rising
Soaring freight rates: Middle East conflicts disrupt supply chains
Shrinking raw steel supply: Slab and HRC prices in Asia surge
Chinese dumping: Thai mills’ utilization drops to just 28%
♻️ Scrap — The Rising Star of the Green Steel Era
Global demand for scrap is surging under the carbon reduction trend. Domestic trading prices (June 2026):
Heavy scrap: 7.00 – 8.70 THB/kg
Light scrap: 4.50 – 5.50 THB/kg
⚠️ Note: Community scrap has high contamination → requires EAF + Ladle Furnace to upgrade quality.
⚙️ Technology Transition — From IF Furnace to EAF
Government pushes a 3-year roadmap to phase down IF furnaces
Goal: Produce high-quality, safe, eco-friendly recycled steel
EAF + Ladle Furnace = New Standard for Thai Steel
️ Thai Government’s Protective Measures
Ban on new/expanded steel plants → curb oversupply
Anti-Dumping (AD) duties:
H-Beam from China
Cold-rolled stainless steel from Vietnam (effective until 2030)
Global Factors Pressuring Prices
Middle East crisis → higher oil prices
CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) → adds ~5% export cost to EU/US
Weak baht → higher import costs for ore and machinery
Domestic Steel Prices (June 2026)
Construction rebar: softening (17.50 – 19.50 THB/kg)
Structural steel: firm (21.00 – 25.00 THB/kg)
Scrap: slight dip but strong demand from EAF mills
Steel & Scrap Outlook (H2 2026)
Market expected to move in “volatile swings on a higher base (Upside Base)”.
Bullish Factors
Stricter global environmental rules → rising demand for Green Steel
Infrastructure & EV investments → more high-grade steel needed
EAF adoption → stronger demand for clean scrap
Bearish Factors
Oversupply from China, India, Vietnam → pressure on rebar & long products
Thai real estate slowdown → weaker construction steel demand
Weak baht → higher import costs
Thai Steel Market Price Trends
Construction rebar: likely to soften further, but not to past lows
Structural steel: stays high, supported by AD duties & energy costs
Scrap: remains elevated due to EAF demand despite volatility
️ Strategies for Market Players
Contractors: lock in prices / buy in bulk to control costs
Recycling mills: sort clean scrap, reduce contamination → fetch higher prices
Steel traders: monitor oversupply from China/India and government AD measures
✨ Conclusion
Though Thailand’s steel market faces multi-front pressures, structural shifts are steering the industry into a more sustainable Green Steel era. Prices will fluctuate on a higher base, and market players must adapt strategies quickly to keep pace with change.
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