“Aluminum Boom! Global Prices Surge as LME Breaks $3,600 – Japan Premium Hits Decade High, 2026 Becomes Thailand’s Golden Year for Recycling”

“Aluminum Boom! LME Surges – Premium Hits Decade High, Unlocking Golden Opportunities for Recycling in 2026” By SO OK TRADING | May 12, 2026

 
Global Market Overview
In May 2026, the global aluminum market remains “the hottest in years.” Prices spiked to $3,632 per ton before correcting to $3,479–$3,525 per ton, still more than 45% higher year-on-year.

Middle East Supply Crisis: Attacks on smelters and shipping routes cut global production by nearly 9%.
EV & Clean Energy Demand: Aluminum demand continues to grow, expected to rise another 4–5% this year.
China’s Production Recovery: While output has resumed, it is insufficient to ease global tightness.
 
LME Price Situation
Latest Price (May 8, 2026): $3,502 per ton
Backwardation Structure: Spot price ($3,559) exceeds 3-month futures ($3,510), reflecting strong immediate demand.
Stock Levels: LME warehouse inventories have dropped to just 350,000 tons, a critically low level making prices highly sensitive to news.
 
MJP Premium (Japan Port Premium)
Q2 2026: $350–353 per ton, the highest in a decade
Q1 2026: $195 per ton, marking an 80% surge
Drivers: Supply diverted to Europe/US where premiums are higher, rising transport costs, and geopolitical risks pressuring Asia
 
Thailand Market Situation
TALON/TANN Wire: Purity 99–99.7%, ~80 THB/kg
Aluminum Plate/Extrusion: 60–87 THB/kg
UBC Cans: 45–62 THB/kg
Low-Grade Scrap: e.g., mesh or turnings, only 15–20 THB/kg
 
♻️ Recycling Trends in 2026
Closed Loop Recycling: “Can-to-Can” process reduces energy use by up to 95%
Green Aluminum: Recycled aluminum gains premium pricing and export advantages
Advanced Sorting Tech: XRF/LIBS systems enable precise grade separation, boosting scrap value to industrial levels
EPR Legislation: Producers will be responsible for product waste, with automatic return machines (RVMs) expected to expand
 
Price Outlook
Short Term (Q2–Q3 2026): Likely to consolidate within $3,400–$3,500 per ton if Middle East tensions ease, though demand remains strong
Mid Term (End of 2026): Average price forecast at $2,900–$3,000+, exceeding World Bank’s earlier projections
MJP Premium: Expected to remain above $300 per ton throughout the year
Thailand Market: High-grade scrap prices remain firm, supported by EV and Green Energy demand
 
Strategic Advice (as of May 12, 2026)
Sellers: Clean, well-sorted scrap maintains strong pricing; consider phased selling to reduce risk
Buyers/Manufacturers: Price corrections present good opportunities to stockpile
Investors: $3,450–$3,500 per ton is a key support level; holding above this range could trigger another rally
 
Conclusion
2026 is hailed as the “Golden Year of Recycling.” Aluminum scrap is no longer mere waste but a strategic raw material in the era of the green economy. Businesses that invest in technology and adapt to market trends will gain stronger bargaining power and global competitiveness.

 
SO OK TRADING FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE www.sooktrading.com Facebook: SO OK TRADING