“Global Raw Material Crisis: Hormuz Eases, Energy Landscape Transforms — Oil Plunges, Naphtha Softens, Fertilizer Remains Costly”
Global Raw Material Crisis: From Middle East War to Market Recovery — Article by SO OK TRADING | April 18, 2026
The Hormuz Strait crisis is easing, and oil, naphtha, and fertilizer markets are showing signs of recovery.
⛽ Crude Oil: From Surge to Sharp Decline Following Iran’s announcement of reopening the Hormuz Strait, international crude prices dropped significantly:
Brent Crude: down 7–9%, to around $90/barrel
WTI Crude: down 10%, to about $85/barrel
The “geopolitical risk premium” instantly vanished by $15–20. In Thailand, pump prices fell immediately (diesel -1.50 THB, gasoline -0.50 THB), with further cuts possible after refinery margin adjustments on April 23.
⚗️ Naphtha: Crisis Within Crisis, Now Loosening
Prices had spiked over 30% in a single month, surpassing $1,000/ton
Producers worldwide cut output by 25–30% due to raw material shortages
Supply is returning, but transport and insurance costs remain elevated
Prices are expected to ease to $900–950/ton by late April, though full normalization will take time.
Chemical Fertilizers: Supply Returns, Prices Still High
Fertilizer and urea exports from the Middle East were disrupted by war, leaving global markets short
The reopening of Hormuz improves logistics, but March–April disruptions left inventories depleted
Farmers will continue facing high costs until new shipments reflect lower production expenses
Summary
Oil: leading the price decline → easing energy costs
Naphtha: supply recovery but still expensive → businesses must manage costs carefully
Fertilizers: slowest to recover → farmers remain under short-term cost pressure
“Global energy is shifting from crisis to pause — oil leads the price drop, naphtha recovers slowly, fertilizers remain costly, but the overall trajectory is toward tangible recovery.”
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