「タイのシリコンメタル：石英からAIチップへ、アルミニウム産業と自動車産業を支え、世界が求めるクリーンエネルギーとグリーンな未来の原動力」

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs

「2026年の日本：インフレの道を歩み、金利上昇で世界の潮流に逆行」 SO OK TRADING | 2026年6月29日 日本経済は長期的なデフレから脱却し、重要な転換期を迎えています。インフレ圧力や高騰するエネルギーコストに直面しながらも、西側諸国が利下げに動く中、日本は「逆行」して金利を引き上げ、経済の安定と金融市場への信頼を守ろうとしています。 国内消費は再び活発化し、輸出や観光業も回復傾向にあります。政府は21.99兆円規模の景気刺激策を投入し、購買力を支えています。同時に日本銀行（BOJ）は金利を1.00%へ引き上げ、31年ぶりの高水準でインフレ抑制に取り組んでいます。 エネルギー価格の高騰や高齢化社会といった構造的課題に直面しながらも、日本は洋上風力発電やクリーン水素への投資を加速させ、中東依存から脱却し、長期的な経済の安定を目指しています。 これは「挑戦の中での回復」を象徴する姿であり、日本が再び世界経済の舞台で強さを取り戻すための新たな基盤を築いているのです。