「タイのシリコンメタル：石英からAIチップへ、アルミニウム産業と自動車産業を支え、世界が求めるクリーンエネルギーとグリーンな未来の原動力」

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs

✨ 世界は転換期へ：エネルギー高騰、経済の不安定、それでもビジネスにはチャンスがある ✨ SO OK TRADINGによる状況分析 2026年3月31日、中東戦争が世界経済を大きく揺さぶった重要な日として記録されました。原油と天然ガスの価格は過去数年で最高水準に急騰し、プラスチック、肥料、食品、金属などあらゆる産業の生産コストが一気に上昇しました。世界の株式市場は大きく変動し、金は依然として「安全資産」と見なされながらも高いリスクを伴っています。 しかし、この不確実性の中には 新たなビジネスチャンス が存在します。 - サーキュラーエコノミーへの移行 - 代替エネルギーの活用 - リサイクルや低炭素技術への投資加速 SO OK TRADINGは、これを重要な転換点と捉えています: - 持続可能性へと舵を切る企業は優位に立つでしょう - 危機の中でチャンスを探す投資家は、グリーンエネルギーや新たなサプライチェーンに可能性を見出すでしょう - 消費者は、環境に優しく、より低コストの商品へとシフトしていくでしょう