「炽烈战争，震撼世界——百日冲突 Middle East Crisis 2026：当地缘政治撼动全球经济与关键原材料」 SO OK TRADING ：2026年6月8日

Non-Ferrous Supercycle : SO OK TRADING 「全线飘红！全球有色金属飙升 — 泰铢贬值 + 金属上涨 = 泰国企业新的成本危机」 全球有色金属市场正进入“大型上升周期（Supercycle）”。清洁能源经济的扩张与高科技时代的转型推动了铜、铝、镍、锡和银的全面上涨，呈现出“全线飘红”的局面。这反映了来自电动车（EV）、数据中心以及绿色金属产业的巨大需求。 与此同时，泰铢贬值至 1 美元 = 33.397 泰铢，进一步加剧了泰国进口商的成本压力。全球市场价格的飙升与汇率的不利走势叠加，使泰国原材料成本迅速攀升。 SO OK TRADING 深度分析全球金属市场走势及其对泰国企业的影响，并提出应对策略 —— 从风险对冲（Hedging）到产业成本结构的调整，为依赖金属的行业提供解决方案。

钢铁价格风暴 2026 —— 危机化为机遇 SO OK TRADING | 2026年5月17日 泰国钢铁市场正经历近几年最火热的局面！ 价格已上涨 10–15%，并预计在第二季度因电力与能源成本飙升而再次上调

An analysis of the aluminum market in 2026 indicates a likely continued market deficit and upward price pressure, driven by constrained supply and resilient demand from green energy sectors. However, significant volatility is expected due to policy uncertainties and the potential for new Indonesian supply to eventually balance the market. Key Drivers and Projections for 2026 Supply Side Analysis Capacity Constraints: China's primary aluminum output is approaching its self-imposed 45 million-tonne capacity cap, limiting global supply growth. Power Challenges: Smelters outside of China face intense competition for power from energy-intensive sectors like AI data centers, which are willing to pay higher prices for long-term contracts. This has kept significant capacity offline in Europe and the US. Production Disruptions: Outages and potential shutdowns at existing smelters in Iceland and Mozambique further tighten the market. Scrap Supply Pressure: The EU's planned implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential scrap export tariffs in spring 2026 are expected to impact global scrap flows, creating regional shortages and price volatility. New Capacity: Indonesia is a key source of new supply, with several projects in the pipeline. However, analysts suggest the pace of the ramp-up may be slower than expected due to infrastructure and policy challenges, meaning it is unlikely to fully offset near-term tightness. Demand Side Analysis Green Transition Demand: Demand from "green" sectors such as solar panels, new energy vehicles, and energy transition infrastructure remains strong, providing fundamental support for the market. Substitution Effect: Aluminum's wide price discount relative to copper has encouraged substitution in electrical applications, acting as a tailwind for demand and prices. Construction and Automotive: The construction and automotive industries continue to be major consumers, with growing demand for lightweight, low-carbon aluminum products. Price Forecasts and Volatility The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. This structural tightness is leading most analysts to forecast sustained or rising prices. Bullish Views: Analysts at Bank of America project prices of $3,000/tonne as early as 2026. J.P. Morgan also expects prices to approach $3,000/tonne in Q1 2026. ING forecasts an average price of $2,900/tonne for the year. Bearish/Conservative Views: Goldman Sachs is an outlier, forecasting prices to decline to $2,350/tonne by Q4 2026, anticipating a market surplus later in the year. SMM forecasts a "high first, then lower" pattern, with prices finding equilibrium in the $2,700–$2,800/tonne range by year-end. Premiums: Regional premiums, particularly the US Midwest premium, are expected to remain high and volatile due to tariffs and regional supply dynamics, creating a disconnect from the LME benchmark price. In essence, 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility where participants need to focus on scenario readiness rather than relying on a single price forecast, as geopolitical and energy policies significantly influence regional supply and costs