「泰国钢铁市场十年来最炽热：2026钢铁价格风暴

历史性的“特朗普–习近平峰会”（2026年5月12日至15日）不仅仅是一次礼节性访问，而是撼动世界的大交易，涵盖经济、能源与科技。此次会晤展现了两大强国之间复杂的博弈，它们合计占全球GDP的42%。 从中东战争到台湾问题，从稀土贸易到高端技术出口管制的放宽——谈判桌上的每一次“交锋”，都可能成为决定全球市场走向、油价走势以及未来AI供应链的关键变量。 这是一场全球必须关注的峰会。如果协议成功，世界经济或将重回稳定；若失败，其冲击将波及全球民生成本，包括泰国在内的各国都会受到影响。 SO OK TRADING : FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE 在瞬息万变的世界中，您的商业伙伴

he Thai baht in Q1 2026 is expected to strengthen against the US dollar, driven primarily by a weaker dollar globally, a seasonal tourism boost, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This strength is occurring despite a weak domestic economic outlook and the Bank of Thailand's (BoT) likely continued easing of its policy rate. Exchange Rate Drivers and Forecast External Factors: The primary driver for the strengthening baht is external, mainly the broad weakness of the US dollar as global markets price in expected Fed rate cuts. The baht is also correlated with global gold prices, which have been climbing. Tourism High Season: The period extending into Q1 2026 is the high season for tourism, which typically brings in foreign currency and supports the baht's value. Policy Divergence: The BoT is expected to continue its easing cycle, potentially cutting the policy rate further to 1.00% by Q1 2026 to stimulate the sluggish domestic economy. This divergence from a potentially less aggressive US Fed in Q1 could support the baht in the short term, though some analysts warn the currency could weaken later in 2026. Forecasts: Projections for 2026 generally place the baht in a range of 30.80–33.00 per US dollar. Some models estimate it could trade around 31.06 by the end of Q1. A persistently strong baht below 31 per US$ is seen as a significant risk to the Thai export and tourism sectors. Key Economic Context Weak Growth: Thailand's economy is expected to slow down to a 5-year low growth rate of around 1.6-1.8% in 2026, pressured by US tariffs, global trade tensions, and high household debt. The central bank chief expects an improvement in Q1 2026 after a weak second half of 2025. Political Uncertainty: A general election expected in February 2026 could also introduce volatility, though some historical trends suggest the baht may strengthen following the formation of a new government. Low Inflation: Headline inflation is projected to remain subdued or even negative, providing the central bank with justification for further rate cuts to stimulate demand. In summary, Q1 2026 is characterized by a strong and volatile baht driven by external factors, contrasting sharply with a weak domestic economy and accommodative monetary policy.

Global Market Summary – March 2, 2026