“Oil Surge Shakes Global Metal Markets: Brent Breaks $113, Driving Thai Aluminium Costs Higher Under Dual Pressure from LME and MJP” SO OK TRADING | September 19, 2026

Oil Surge Shakes Global Metal Markets: MJP Q4/2026 Forecast
SO OK TRADING | September 19, 2026

 
✦ Introduction
September 2026 marks a critical turning point in the global energy market. Brent crude oil prices surged to $104–113 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions and shipping attacks in the Middle East. This shockwave not only pressured energy costs but also disrupted the global metal pricing structure, particularly MJP Premiums and LME Aluminium Cash prices, which are key benchmarks for Thailand’s aluminium processing and electric vehicle (EV) industries.

In an environment where energy costs are soaring and the metal market has entered a phase of “tightness,” Thai manufacturers must adopt proactive strategies to withstand dual pressures from both global and domestic cost structures. SO OK TRADING provides in‑depth analysis and survival strategies for Q4/2026 — enabling Thai businesses to safeguard margins and maintain competitiveness in this era of expensive energy.

 
✦ Structural Impacts
MJP Premium Q4/2026
Original forecast: $280–$320/MT
Revised forecast: $340–$380/MT (with potential to approach Q3’s peak of $395/MT)

Double Whammy for Thai Metal Costs
LME Aluminium Cash: $3,260–$3,350/MT (latest close $3,303.50)
CIF Thailand Premium: $330–$370/MT
Combined landed cost: $3,650/MT (≈130,000–135,000 THB/MT)

Aluminium Scrap: Strategic Alternative
Imported ingot cost: ~128,746 THB/MT
Recycled scrap cost: ~108,516 THB/MT
Savings: ~20,230 THB/MT (≈15.7%)

Advantages: Uses only 5% of the energy required for new smelting, avoids shipping premiums, aligns with green energy goals
Risks: Domestic supply may tighten due to rising demand
 
✦ Outlook: Aluminium Market Trends
Oil prices likely to remain above $100/barrel if Middle East tensions persist
LME Aluminium Cash could rise to $3,500–$3,600/MT if energy costs stay elevated
MJP Premium may close near Q3’s high of $395/MT
Thai market will face its highest costs of the year, especially for EV and energy‑intensive industries
 
✦ Analysis: Strategies to Mitigate Aluminium & MJP Price Pressures
Secure long‑term contracts to stabilize costs
Hedge on LME to protect against price volatility
Source regionally (Indonesia, Malaysia) to reduce freight costs
Utilize FTAs for 0% import tariffs
Expand domestic aluminium scrap recycling to strengthen supply security
 
✦ Conclusion
The oil surge in Q4/2026 has created dual cost pressures from both LME and MJP, driving Thai metal costs sharply higher. Yet, this environment also opens opportunities: aluminium scrap recycling remains economically advantageous compared to imported ingots. By adopting proactive procurement strategies, leveraging FTAs, and investing in recycling, Thai manufacturers can preserve margins and competitiveness in the era of expensive energy.

 
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