Global Markets Risk-Off – THB Breaks 33, JPY Safe Haven Surge, USD Weakness: A Week of Volatility SO OK TRADING | 10 AUG 2026
Global Markets Risk-Off – THB Strength, JPY Safe Haven, USD Weakness
10–14 August 2026: Weekly Currency Outlook By SO OK TRADING | 10 August 2026
Thai Baht (THB)
Latest Situation: Broke below 33.00 THB/USD, opened at 33.02, and traded within 32.80–33.20. Strongest level in six weeks.
Drivers:
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls fell by 23,000 (vs. +80,000 expected) → USD weakened
Gold surged near $4,350/oz → capital inflows supported THB
Weekly Outlook (Aug 10–14): Expected range 32.80–33.40, maintaining firm bias.
Strategy:
Importers: Use THB strength to gradually exchange USD and reduce costs
Exporters: Wait for THB rebound toward 33.20–33.40 before hedging via forwards
U.S. Dollar (USD)
Outlook: Bearish, continued weakness
Situation: DXY dropped to 101.5–102.0
Factors: Weak labor data → recession fears → Fed rate-cut speculation
Watch: CPI/PPI; stronger-than-expected inflation could trigger USD rebound
Major Currencies
Euro (EUR): Bullish. Supported by USD weakness, but ZEW sentiment may cap gains. Range: 36.30–36.90 THB/EUR.
British Pound (GBP): Neutral to Bullish. Supported by USD weakness; Aug 13 UK labor data is key. Range: 41.80–42.50 THB/GBP.
Japanese Yen (JPY): Strong Bullish. Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and narrowing rate differentials. Range: 22.50–23.30 THB/100 JPY.
Regional & Emerging Market Currencies
Chinese Yuan (CNY): Stable. PBOC maintains stability, but weak retail/industrial data could pressure CNY.
Australian Dollar (AUD): Rangebound. Global slowdown and commodity demand concerns limit upside.
Global Equities
U.S.: Downside volatility; recession fears and Big Tech sell-off
Europe: Flat to corrective; sentiment index pressures
Japan: Sharp decline; yen strength and U.S. sell-off spillover
China/HK: Low-level consolidation; awaiting data and stimulus
Thailand: Narrow range; foreign outflows, but refinery/export stocks supported
Investment Strategy: Reduce exposure to high-valuation tech, hold cash, diversify into safe assets such as gold and short-term bonds.
Summary (Aug 10–14, 2026)
THB: Strongest in six weeks
USD: Weak on poor labor data
EUR & GBP: Strength from USD weakness, capped by local risks
JPY: Leading safe-haven currency
Global Equities: Risk-off, high volatility
Strategy: Importers benefit, exporters wait for THB rebound, investors focus on safe assets.
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