“Global Aluminium Market Boiling Point – SO OK TRADING Q3/2026 Outlook: Scrap Emerges as Thailand’s Industrial Lifeline”

“Global Aluminium Market on Fire: Prices Surge – Scrap Becomes the Lifeline” : SO OK TRADING : 1 AUG 2026

 
Aluminium Market Overview (August 2026)
Prices remain elevated at USD 3,550–3,800 per ton (including MJP Premium)
Thai import CIF costs average THB 135,000–140,000 per ton
Key drivers: Middle East energy crisis & geopolitical tensions, Japan’s MJP Premium at an 11-year high, strong demand from EV and clean energy sectors
 
Price Drivers
Energy & Geopolitical Crisis – Smelters in the Persian Gulf cut production due to conflict
Japan MJP Premium – Surged to USD 355–380 per ton, reflecting strong Asian demand
Green Industry Demand – EVs and clean energy infrastructure remain powerful growth engines
 
Trends & Forecasts
Citi: Prices could reach USD 4,000 per ton if LME stocks continue to decline
Goldman Sachs: New supply from Indonesia and India expected in Q4/2026, potentially pushing premiums down to USD 280–320 per ton
Recommendations for Thailand: Use hedging strategies, focus on short–mid-term contracts, avoid long-term speculation
 
Aluminium Supply Situation in Thailand ⚖️
Positives
UAE’s EGA smelter partially restarted after repairs
Indonesia–China joint ventures increased aluminium exports
Prices eased from the peak (USD 3,854) to USD 3,100–3,200 per ton
Negatives
Geopolitical risks remain high (Hormuz Strait)
LME stocks below 300,000–400,000 tons, a critical level
Full recovery of Middle East smelters expected to take at least 12 months
 
Scrap Aluminium Market ♻️
Premium Grade (6063 Extrusion): Prices rose to 80–85% of LME
UBC (Used Beverage Cans): Strong surge driven by green packaging and carbon reduction policies
Mixed Scrap/Dross: Stable due to high energy costs
Supply Availability: Tight but accessible

Thai scrap reduced due to slowdown in combustion vehicle production
Scrap inflows from Europe & US (CBAM impact)
China restricts low-grade scrap imports → ASEAN benefits
ESG Pressure: Prices boosted by “Green Premium” as EV and appliance manufacturers pay more for low-carbon aluminium

 
Thailand’s Key Scrap Trading Partners
United States – Premium scrap, Zorba/Twitch, construction materials
ASEAN (Malaysia & Singapore) – Sorting & trading hubs, AFTA duty-free (0%)
Europe (UK, Germany, France) – CBAM-driven exports, enabling Thailand to secure high-quality scrap at competitive prices
 
Thailand’s Key P1020 Ingot Trading Partners
UAE (EGA) – Premium supplier, purity ≥99.7%
India (HINDALCO, Vedanta, NALCO) – FTA duty-free (0%)
Malaysia (Press Metal) – Close proximity, short transit, AFTA duty-free
Australia (Tomago, Boyne) – TAFTA benefits, preferred by Japanese automakers
Qatar & Bahrain (Qatalum, Alba) – Competitive pricing via cheap natural gas
 
Major Industries Using P1020 ⚙️
Automotive: Casting alloys → engine blocks, cylinder heads, alloy wheels, EV structures
Construction: Extrusion → window frames, curtain walls, interior fittings
Electrical & Electronics: High-voltage power lines, heat sinks, air-conditioning components
Packaging: Food & pharmaceutical foil, easy-open can lids
Why start with P1020? – High purity (≥99.7%), minimal impurities, precise alloy formulation control

 
Conclusion ✅
In August 2026, the global aluminium market remains “heated and fragile.” While smelter recovery and new supply flows offer some relief, geopolitical risks and critically low stock levels continue to exert pressure.

Thai businesses should manage risks through short–mid-term contracts and hedging strategies, while increasingly turning to scrap aluminium as a sustainable and cost-effective alternative.

 
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