“SO OK TRADING Copper Market Analysis – July 2026: From Consolidation to Strategic Accumulation | FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE” : 2 JULY 2026

“Copper Market July 2026 – High Heat, High Volatility, Yet Still an Accumulation Opportunity” : SO OK TRADING : 2 JULY 2026

 
In July 2026, the global copper market enters the Summer Lull, a period marked by volatility. Prices are moving within a wide range of $11,500–$13,000 per ton or $5.20–$5.90 per pound on COMEX and LME. Tight supply and new technology demand provide support, while U.S. monetary policy and China’s economy remain key variables.

 
✅ Positive Factors Supporting Copper Prices
AI & Data Centers: Massive demand for wiring and cooling systems from global AI and data infrastructure
Supply Shortages: Major mines in Chile and Indonesia unable to meet demand
U.S. Import Tariffs: Higher tariffs on refined copper spur stockpiling, tightening markets outside the U.S.
 
⚠️ Risks to Watch
Federal Reserve Policy: High interest rates pressure copper prices to consolidate
U.S. & China Economic Data: China’s PMI not yet fully recovered; U.S. labor data closely watched
 
Investment Bank Views on LME Copper
Goldman Sachs (Bullish): Prices may surge to $13,000–$15,000 per ton due to severe shortages and EV/AI investment
J.P. Morgan & Citi (Neutral/Bearish): Expect lower range $10,500–$11,000 per ton under high interest rates and slow Chinese recovery
 
♻️ Scrap Copper Outlook (Thailand)
Grade A (Clean/Thick Wire): 340–380 THB/kg, highly sensitive to global market swings
Grade B/C (Mixed Wire/Burnt Copper): 280–320 THB/kg, recommended to sell gradually when global prices hold above $5.50/lb
Shop/Foundry Strategy: Focus on fast turnover, avoid cross‑quarter stockpiling → reduce volatility risk
 
️ Strategies for Thai Businesses
Factories/Raw Material Buyers: Use forward contracts to lock in copper and FX rates for 30–50% of volume
Wire & Cable Producers: Include escalation clauses in bids to protect against rising copper costs
PCB/Electronics Manufacturers: Secure long‑term contracts with major traders to ensure supply
Construction/HVAC Contractors: Adjust project cost estimates to reflect higher copper input prices
 
Seasonality & Timing
July–August: Sideways / Summer Lull, prices typically range‑bound
Late July–August: Q3 bottom often forms → sharp rebound in September with China’s restocking cycle
 
Price Forecast
Q3 2026: $11,000–$13,000 per ton (consolidation but still elevated)
Late 2026: Potential rebound to $13,500–$15,000 per ton if supply remains tight and AI/EV demand accelerates
2027: Possible entry into a new supercycle if China fully recovers and clean energy infrastructure expands
 
Conclusion
Copper remains the “Doctor Copper” reflecting global economic health. July marks a consolidation phase, but AI, EV, and supply shortages continue to support prices. Businesses should adopt dip‑buying + hedging strategies to mitigate risks and prepare for strong rebounds in the next quarter.

 
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