Aluminum Surge! Soaring to 4-Year High, Breaking $3,800 — Shaking Global Markets, Impacting Thailand, Scrap Boom & Rising Costs
Aluminum on Fire! Prices Break $3,800/ton, Shaking Global Markets – Impacting Thailand : Still Rising Relentlessly : UPDATED 3 JUNE 2026
June 2026 has become a month to be recorded in the history of the global metals market. For the first time in 4 years, LME Cash aluminum prices broke through the critical resistance level of $3,800/ton, reflecting extreme supply tightness and stronger-than-expected demand.
Key Drivers Behind the Surge
Middle East War: Major smelters in UAE and Bahrain halted production; shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faces closure risks, causing immediate supply shortages.
Guinea’s Bauxite Export Restrictions: Upstream raw materials disappeared from the global market, worsening the supply crisis.
New Demand from EVs & Data Centers: Electric vehicles and digital infrastructure are consuming massive amounts of aluminum.
Tariffs & Environmental Policies: The U.S. raised import tariffs, while Europe enforced CBAM, pushing production costs higher.
LME Aluminum Price Scenarios – June 2026
Bull Case (Prolonged Crisis): Prices may break above $4,000/ton.
Base Case (Partial Relief): Prices adjust down to $3,550–3,700/ton but remain elevated due to global energy costs.
Impact on Thai Businesses
Immediate Cost Spike: Prices of aluminum bars and sheets in Thailand rise daily in line with LME.
Packaging Industry Pressure: Beverage can producers face soaring packaging costs, squeezing Q2–Q3 profits.
Scrap Market Boom: Thai aluminum scrap prices surge to 80–110 THB/kg. Smelters compete to buy, saving over 95% in energy.
Strategies to Handle the Price Spike
Hedging: Use LME financial tools to lock in prices and mitigate risks.
Professional Scrap Sorting: Clean and grade aluminum scrap to sell at premium prices.
Monitor Japan’s MJP Premium: Q3/2026 expected at $355–380/ton, pushing Thai import costs to $4,150–4,200/ton.
The global aluminum market is entering a “golden era of high prices and volatility.” Thai businesses must adapt quickly through stock management, scrap utilization, and hedging strategies to protect profits and competitiveness.
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