“Aluminum on Fire! Prices Soar, Shaking the World – EVs, Construction, and Packaging Hit Hard. Recycling Emerges as the Key to Survive the Global Aluminum Crisis” : SO OK TRADING, May 9, 2026

 Aluminum on Fire! May 2026 – Prices Surge, Shaking Industries from EVs to Beverage Cans : SO OK TRADING : May 9, 2026

 
May 2026 marks the “hottest month in years” for the global aluminum market. Prices soared to their highest level in nearly four years before easing slightly, yet remained firm in the high range of 3,450–3,700 USD/mt. In Thailand, domestic prices continued to climb, reaching 135–140 THB/kg, driven by a shortage of primary aluminum, reflecting both supply chain pressures and strong demand.

 
Factors Driving the “Boiling” Market
Middle East conflict: Attacks on smelters and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut global supply by about 9%.
Energy and logistics costs: Red Sea shipping rates surged, forcing producers to adjust prices to reflect real costs.
Global tariff measures: The U.S. imposed Section 232 tariffs, while Europe began enforcing CBAM, heavily pressuring export costs.
Low LME stocks: Aluminum inventories were down to just a few days, making the market highly sensitive to news.
 
Impact on Downstream Industries
EVs: Costs jumped immediately due to reliance on lightweight aluminum.
Construction: Entering high season, demand remained strong despite high prices — aluminum grade 6063 was in short supply.
Electronics: Shortages of raw materials for component production began to emerge.
 
♻️ Recycling as the “Way Out”
15–30% cheaper compared to primary aluminum
95% lower energy use, easing CBAM carbon tax burdens
Packaging & Scrap: Beverage cans, food cans, aluminum foil
Packaging demand: Seasonal summer surge + closed-loop recycling trend driving growth
 
Scrap Market in Thailand: Heating Up
White 6063: 68–75 THB/kg
UBC cans: 60–64 THB/kg
Clean wires: 72–78 THB/kg → Fierce competition between domestic smelters and exporters tightened the scrap market.
 
Aluminum Price Overview – Q2 2026
Global average (LME): 3,550 USD/mt (+12–15% from Q1)
Thailand: 130–140 THB/kg
Market status: Clear upward trend, but volatile daily
MJP (Midwest Japan Premium): Q2/2026 at 353 USD/mt — prices may rise further in Q3/2026
 
Strategic Recommendations
Secure 50% of raw materials in advance if prices ease to around 3,450 USD
Limit contract offers to 7–14 days, with LME-linked adjustment clauses
Diversify imports from India and ASEAN to spread risk
Monitor Thai baht depreciation and exchange rates, as they will further raise import costs
 
✨ Conclusion: May 2026 is a “month of crisis and opportunity.” Recycling, stock management, and long-term contract strategies will be key to survival and gaining an edge in the most volatile aluminum market of the year.

 
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