Aluminum Market on Fire! Prices Surge, Premiums Soar, Supply Shortage – Global Metals Analysis April 2026 Article by SO OK TRADING · April 16, 2026
Aluminum Market Report: April 2026
Global Market Prices (LME)
Current Price: $3,500 – $3,626 per ton
Peak: $3,630 per ton (mid-April)
Change: +51% year-on-year
Outlook: If Middle East conflict persists, prices may test $3,700 – $3,800 per ton (Morgan Stanley analysis)
Key Price Drivers
Middle East War: Attacks on smelters and Hormuz Strait closure → global supply down 8–9%
Energy Costs: Oil and gas prices surged 30%+ → aluminum production costs rise sharply
EU CBAM Policy: “Green Premium” added to price structure, pushing costs higher
China Demand: Export surge to offset missing supply, but insufficient
ALUMINUM : Spec P1020
P1020 (High Purity Aluminum Ingot): Purity ≥ 99.7%
Standard traded grade on LME
Si ≤ 0.10, Fe ≤ 0.20, other ≤ 0.05
Premiums
MJP Premium (Main Japanese Ports)
Q1/2026: ~$195 per ton
Q2/2026: ~$352 per ton (+80% quarter-on-quarter)
Reasons for High Premiums
Middle East supply disruption
Rising energy and freight costs
Full enforcement of EU CBAM tax
⚠️ Supply Shortage
Major Middle East smelters (EGA, Alba) halted or declared Force Majeure
Global supply loss: ~900,000 tons in Q2/2026
Hormuz Strait closure → transport routes cut off
Impact on Thailand
Construction materials: Aluminum profiles and sections up 5–10%
Scrap aluminum: Prices continue to climb
Q2/2026 Price Forecast (SO OK TRADING)
Ceiling: $3,900/MT
Average: $3,500/MT
Floor: $3,300/MT
Expected average: $3,500–$3,600/MT, with April around $3,550/MT. Range: $3,400 – $3,650/MT. Drivers: Middle East conflict, oil prices, ~10% supply loss.
Other Factors
Anti-Dumping Tax (AD): Imports from China may face up to 21.94% CIF duty
Recycling Boom: Industry shifts to recycled aluminum → scrap market opportunity
EV & Clean Energy: Strong aluminum demand in EV and renewable energy sectors
Major Producers
Alcoa → Focus on Green Aluminum
China Hongqiao → Largest global capacity
Rio Tinto → Strong in aerospace and EV markets
EGA (UAE) → Severely impacted by war
✨ Summary
April 2026 marks the hottest aluminum market in years. Prices surged due to war and energy costs, premiums reached abnormal highs, and global supply shrank. Thai businesses face rising costs in construction and scrap. Hedging strategies and recycling adoption are key survival tactics, while scrap markets present new opportunities.
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