Copper Surge! April 2026 — Middle East Conflict, Trade Policies, and Technology Drive Global Copper Prices to the Boiling Point Article by SO OK TRADING
Copper Surge! April 15, 2026 Global copper prices have soared to $13,300/ton (+6.4%) in just one week, driven by Middle East conflict – trade policies – and China’s sulfuric acid export restrictions.
Market Highlights
In April 2026, the global copper market is in a phase of “strong rally but high volatility.” Prices jumped from $12,500/ton to $13,300/ton within days, reflecting investor panic buying amid geopolitical and trade concerns.
Why Did Prices Spike?
Middle East Conflict: Tensions in Iran disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up transport and energy costs.
China’s Policy: Restrictions on sulfuric acid exports (a key input for copper smelting) immediately raised costs for mines worldwide.
U.S. Tariffs: Importers rushed to stockpile copper ahead of new tariffs, draining global inventories.
Tech Demand: Ongoing investments in AI data centers and clean energy infrastructure continue to fuel copper demand.
Financial Institutions’ Outlook
J.P. Morgan: Forecasts Q2 prices at $12,500/ton, citing a deficit of over 330,000 tons of refined copper.
Goldman Sachs: Cut average forecast to $12,650/ton from $12,850, warning prolonged conflict could drag prices down to $11,000–$11,500.
Citigroup (Citi): Most bullish, predicting prices could break $13,000–$15,000/ton this quarter, driven by the AI supercycle.
Deutsche Bank: Sees average at $12,125/ton, with a peak at $13,000, but notes China’s economic slowdown may cap gains.
Impact on Thailand’s Market
Domestic copper prices adjusted immediately in line with global trends:
Copper Cathode: 415–425 THB/kg
Grade A Scrap: 400–410 THB/kg
Copper Tube/AC Scrap: 365–378 THB/kg
LME Copper Price Outlook & Probabilities
Short Term: Market in “panic buying” mode; correction likely to $12,500–$12,800 if conflict eases.
Upside Potential: If China maintains export restrictions and Middle East tensions persist, prices could test $14,000/ton, as Citi projects.
Copper in April 2026 is in a strong uptrend but highly volatile. Current prices have already priced in much of the bad news, making profit-taking less risky than holding out for higher levels.
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