“Middle East War US–IRAN: Global Markets Shaken from Hormuz to Wall Street — Gold Surges, Stocks Fall, Currencies Swing” Situation Assessment: March 30 – April 3, 2026 By SO OK TRADING
“Middle East War US–IRAN: Stocks, Currencies, Gold & Commodities — A Decisive Week for Global Markets”
March 30 – April 3, 2026
By SO OK TRADING
Gold — The Safe Haven Still Burning Bright
Trend: Bullish Volatility
Forecast Range: $4,500 – $4,600 per ounce
Key Support: $4,350 – $4,400
Key Resistance: $4,700 – $4,750
Analysis: If US–Iran talks fail (high probability), gold may break above $4,700. If signs of easing emerge, prices could retreat to test $4,400.
Global Stock Markets
Trend: Bearish / Correction
S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen for 5 consecutive weeks
Main Concern: Stagflation driven by soaring energy costs
Asian markets, including Thailand, remain fragile in line with global sentiment
Major Currencies
US Dollar (USD / DXY): 99.50 – 101.50 points
Support: 99.00 / Resistance: 101.80
Euro (EUR): 1.14 – 1.18 USD 37.40 – 38.20 THB
British Pound (GBP): 1.33 – 1.37 USD 43.20 – 44.10 THB
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): 152 – 157 JPY 0.20 – 0.21 THB
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY): 6.84 – 6.87 CNY
Thai Baht (USD/THB): 32.80 – 33.40 THB
Support: 32.70 / Resistance: 33.25
️ Oil Prices
Trend: Bullish / Supply Shock
Brent and WTI surged over 40% in March
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked → $115–160 per barrel
Extreme scenario: prices could reach $200 per barrel
Thai Stock Market (SET Index)
Trend: Sideway Down
Support: 1,380–1,420 points
Resistance: 1,450–1,460 points
Beneficiaries: Energy & Refining (PTTEP, PTT)
Vulnerable: Construction, Healthcare, Aviation
Positive Note: Thai equities remain a value play with low P/E and high dividend yield
Asian Market Outlook
Japan (Nikkei 225): 52,000–54,000 points
South Korea (KOSPI): 4,900–5,400 points
Hong Kong (Hang Seng): Undervalued → could rebound quickly if peace signals emerge
⚙️ Base Metals & Silver
Aluminum: $3,100 – $3,350 per ton → Bullish, tracking energy costs
Copper: $12,000 – $13,000 per ton → Sideways, dependent on China’s stimulus policies
Silver: $67.50 – $75.00 per ounce → Sideways, bargain levels may attract speculative buying
Key Events This Week
March 30: Jerome Powell speech → Dollar may strengthen further
April 1: ADP & ISM data → Reflecting oil price impact
April 3: Good Friday / US Non-Farm Payrolls → Weak data = bullish for gold
Weekly Summary (March 30 – April 3, 2026)
Gold remains the ultimate safe haven, with support at $4,400 and resistance at $4,700. Major currencies reflect war risks and US monetary policy: dollar strong, euro and yen weak, yuan and baht pressured by high energy costs. Investors must closely watch peace negotiations and US economic data — both will define global market direction this week.
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