Steel’s Risky Recovery: From Crisis to the Green Era From Rock Bottom to Transition: Thai and Global Steel in a Year of Turbulence Article by SO OK TRADING — March 10, 2026
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Steel’s Risky Recovery: From Crisis to the Green Era
From Rock Bottom to Transition: Thai and Global Steel in a Year of Turbulence
Article by SO OK TRADING — March 10, 2026
Thai Steel: Pressure and New Opportunities
The Thai steel industry is facing major shocks from the continuous influx of cheap Chinese steel, forcing domestic producers to cut production and endure shrinking profits. Yet, this is also the most important moment in years to lay a new foundation.
Intense Competition and Overcapacity: Chinese imports are pressuring prices, pushing Thai producers to cut costs and boost efficiency.
Green Steel (Low-Carbon Steel): Demand for clean steel is rising, especially as Europe enforces CBAM. Thai producers must invest in carbon-reduction technologies to maintain export rights.
New Materials and Automation: Scrap steel and AI-driven automation will be central to producing stronger yet lighter steel.
Government Role: Likely support for domestic steel use in infrastructure projects.
Key Risks to Watch
Rising energy and freight costs due to Middle East conflicts
Export risks from Anti-Dumping measures
Volatile iron ore prices, potentially weakening in the second half of the year as new mines in Guinea come online
Global Market: A Fragile Recovery
The World Steel Association expects modest demand recovery in 2027–2028, but not strong enough to trigger a Super Cycle like China’s golden era of 2000–2010. Negative factors remain, including China’s sluggish property sector and oversupply from China and India.
Still, there are positive signals driving a Mini-Cycle price rebound:
Transition to Green Steel, costing 20–30% more than conventional steel
Energy and logistics costs forming a new price baseline
Trade protection measures in many countries shielding markets from cheap Chinese steel
Global Outlook: “Green Era and War”
The global steel industry is recovering from its lowest point, but not entering a long Super Cycle. Middle East conflicts have pushed energy and shipping costs higher, creating cost-push inflation that sets a new price floor. Meanwhile, Green Steel is becoming the global standard, ensuring higher long-term prices even if demand growth remains moderate.
Thai Market: “Battling Chinese Steel, Betting on State Projects”
In Thailand, prices remain volatile in line with global trends but are heavily pressured by ongoing Chinese imports. Domestic producers are pinning hopes on government infrastructure projects and stricter Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Products with strong growth potential include structural steel and prestressed concrete wire/strand (PC Wire/Strand), supported by demand from expressways, railways, and high-rise construction.
Summary
In 2026, the Thai and global steel industry is in a “low-base recovery” rather than a long upward Super Cycle. Prices remain highly volatile, shifting weekly with global news. Thai producers should focus on flexible stock management and investment in Green Steel to secure future advantages.
Steel has already “hit bottom,” but recovery will be volatile — not a sharp surge like past Super Cycles.
“Thai and global steel are recovering amid risks — those who pivot to Green Steel and manage supply chains wisely will lead in this era of turbulence.”
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