Thai Baht in March 2026: Geopolitics Shakes Global Markets — Baht Weakens, Dollar Strengthens, Oil Surges, Inflation Rises from the U.S.–Iran War

The Naphtha & Fertilizer Crisis: Two Storms Shaking the World & ASEAN In April 2026, the world faces a double shock — a severe shortage of Naphtha and chemical fertilizers triggered by the Hormuz Strait conflict. From skyrocketing plastic costs to soaring food prices, this crisis is reshaping global supply chains and pushing ASEAN into a new High-Cost Era. But amid disruption lies opportunity:

Steel Industry Outlook 2026: Gradual Recovery with Rising Price Potential The year 2026 marks a turning point for the global steel industry. After hitting its lowest point in 2025, the market is entering a “new equilibrium,” with demand gradually recovering and prices showing signs of stable upward movement. Global steel demand is forecast to grow 1.3%, reaching 1,773 million tons. India will be the main driver, with growth of 9% fueled by infrastructure investments in roads, railways, and energy. The United States and Europe are also expected to recover steadily, supported by interest rate cuts, clean energy projects, and the automotive sector—1.8% growth in the US and 3.2% in the EU. China, while still facing a slowdown in real estate, will see demand decline ease to -1%, supported by infrastructure projects and steel exports. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia and the Middle East are expected to contribute to diversified demand growth through infrastructure and energy investments. On the pricing side, steel bars (Rebar) are expected to average 16,000–17,000 THB/ton (450–530 USD/MT). Iron ore costs are projected at 83–95 USD/ton, with new supply from Guinea and Australia helping to stabilize input costs. Although trade barriers in the US and EU may keep domestic prices above global levels, the market is moving toward a more stable balance. In Thailand, steel demand is expected to grow modestly, driven by construction and automotive industries, with a base of 16.2 million tons in 2025. However, cheap Chinese steel could account for up to 50% of the market, putting pressure on local producers. Thai businesses must adapt by developing value-added specialty products, enhancing quality standards, and targeting premium and niche export markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa. SO OK Trading: Partnering Thai Steel with Global Markets SO OK Trading supports Thai steel producers with comprehensive solutions: - Market Connectivity: Linking Thai producers with buyers in China and East Asia through an extensive partner network and integrated rail–sea–road logistics. - Market Analysis & Pricing Strategy: Providing insights into steel and iron ore price trends, with index-linked pricing recommendations to reduce volatility. - Stable Contracts & Compliance: Assisting in contract structuring, export documentation, standards, and certifications to ensure reliable trade. - Customer Development: Delivering tailored technical and commercial proposals to meet the needs of Chinese buyers seeking specialty steel. SO OK Trading is more than an exporter—it is a trusted business partner, helping Thai steel enterprises compete with stability and sustainability in the global steel market.

“Hormuz Strait on Fire – Global Logistics Shaken, Freight Costs Exploding” SUPPLY & DEMAND SHOCK from the Middle East | March 13, 2026 Article by SO OK TRADING When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and attacked merchant vessels, over 30% of the world’s oil shipping routes were instantly disrupted. Crude oil prices surged past $150 per barrel, and freight rates skyrocketed 2–3 times within days. -