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Global Economy in the Trump 2.0 Era: From Trade War to Resource War

2026 is not just a year of transition—it marks the beginning of a new era of economic and resource conflict. Under President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy, the world is undergoing a profound transformation in trade, finance, and geopolitics.

 

U.S. Economy: Tariffs + New Fed Chair

Trade War 2.0: Tariffs up to 60% on Chinese goods → factories reshored, global import costs rising.
Inflation & Interest Rates: Domestic tax cuts + tariffs fuel inflation → Fed keeps interest rates higher for longer.
Fed Leadership Change: Kevin Warsh nominated; markets watch closely whether he remains “hawkish” or shifts to easing.
Labor Market & Technology: Hiring slows, but AI and advanced tech remain the main drivers of stock markets.
 

Global Economy: Resilient but Divergent

Global Trade Slowdown: Supply chains disrupted → countries accelerate relocation of production bases.
Currency Volatility: USD stronger short‑term, weaker mid‑term → EUR recovery potential, JPY under pressure, THB strengthening.
Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts with China and oil producers push energy prices higher.
AI Investment Boom: Massive investments in AI across the U.S. and Europe help prevent a global recession.
 

⚔️ Resource Wars: Rare Earths, Battery Metals & Chips

Rare Earths: China controls 80% of supply, begins restricting exports.
Battery Metals: Lithium, cobalt, nickel → South America’s “Lithium Triangle” and Congo become diplomatic battlegrounds.
Semiconductor War: U.S. blocks China’s access to advanced chip technology → China stockpiles high‑tech raw materials.
Resource Nationalism: Countries hoard resources → commodity prices swing violently.
 

Impact on Thailand: Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities: Thailand could become a “midstream supply chain” hub if it maintains neutrality and attracts investment in mineral processing.
Risks: Rising raw material costs for electronics and automotive industries.
Currency: Thai Baht strengthens (31.00–31.50 per USD).
 

Exchange Rate Summary (Feb 2026)

USD: 1 USD ≈ 31.09 THB 0.845 EUR 153.26 JPY 6.91 CNY
CNY: 1 USD ≈ 6.91 CNY
EUR: 1 EUR ≈ 1.18 USD
JPY: 1 USD ≈ 153.26 JPY
THB: 1 USD ≈ 31.09 THB
 

Overall Summary

U.S. Economy: “America First” → high tariffs + Fed leadership change.
Global Economy: Entering a “survival of the fittest” era, with AI as the growth engine.
Currencies: USD strong short‑term, Thai Baht strengthening steadily.
Resource Wars: China dominates rare earths, U.S. seeks new sources → commodity prices highly volatile.
 

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