「6月の通貨戦争：バーツ安・ドル高 ― タイ企業は迅速に戦略を！先に動いた者が勝つ！」 : SO OK TRADING : 2026年6月9日

タイの天然ゴム：世界への影響と将来展望 タイは世界最大の天然ゴム輸出国であり、自動車用タイヤから医療用手袋まで幅広い産業を支えています。全国で 1900万ライ以上の栽培面積を誇り、農家の生活と世界の供給網に不可欠な存在です。 2026年、価格は上昇傾向にあり、鮮乳ゴムは平均 57バーツ/キロ、RSS3は約 60バーツ/キロ。電気自動車や医療分野の需要拡大により、価格は 100バーツ/キロに達する可能性があります。 EUの新しい EUDR規制 により、タイは低リスク供給国として評価され、持続可能な市場でプレミアムな機会を獲得しています。 SO OK TRADING CO., LTD. は、品質・信頼性・安心をもってタイのゴムを世界へ届けます。

he Thai baht in Q1 2026 is expected to strengthen against the US dollar, driven primarily by a weaker dollar globally, a seasonal tourism boost, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This strength is occurring despite a weak domestic economic outlook and the Bank of Thailand's (BoT) likely continued easing of its policy rate. Exchange Rate Drivers and Forecast External Factors: The primary driver for the strengthening baht is external, mainly the broad weakness of the US dollar as global markets price in expected Fed rate cuts. The baht is also correlated with global gold prices, which have been climbing. Tourism High Season: The period extending into Q1 2026 is the high season for tourism, which typically brings in foreign currency and supports the baht's value. Policy Divergence: The BoT is expected to continue its easing cycle, potentially cutting the policy rate further to 1.00% by Q1 2026 to stimulate the sluggish domestic economy. This divergence from a potentially less aggressive US Fed in Q1 could support the baht in the short term, though some analysts warn the currency could weaken later in 2026. Forecasts: Projections for 2026 generally place the baht in a range of 30.80–33.00 per US dollar. Some models estimate it could trade around 31.06 by the end of Q1. A persistently strong baht below 31 per US$ is seen as a significant risk to the Thai export and tourism sectors. Key Economic Context Weak Growth: Thailand's economy is expected to slow down to a 5-year low growth rate of around 1.6-1.8% in 2026, pressured by US tariffs, global trade tensions, and high household debt. The central bank chief expects an improvement in Q1 2026 after a weak second half of 2025. Political Uncertainty: A general election expected in February 2026 could also introduce volatility, though some historical trends suggest the baht may strengthen following the formation of a new government. Low Inflation: Headline inflation is projected to remain subdued or even negative, providing the central bank with justification for further rate cuts to stimulate demand. In summary, Q1 2026 is characterized by a strong and volatile baht driven by external factors, contrasting sharply with a weak domestic economy and accommodative monetary policy.