タイの天然ゴム：世界を動かす柔らかな力 EVとBCG時代の新世紀戦略商品 世界の産業が求めるタイのゴム SO OK TRADING による記事｜2026年3月26日

金価格が5,000ドル/オンスを突破、銀は105ドル/オンスに迫る 投資家は米ドルから逃避し、貴金属に資金を移動 為替の行方と輸出入への影響に注目 概況（2026年1月26日朝） 2026年1月26日朝、タイバーツは米ドルに対して強含み、31.00〜31.10バーツ/ドルの範囲で推移しました。 主要な為替レート： - USD/THB：31.00〜31.08 - JPY/THB：100円 ≈ 19.80〜20.00バーツ - EUR/THB：≈ 36.38バーツ - CNY/THB：≈ 4.44バーツ

STR20：タイ天然ゴムの柱 ― 持続可能な未来とEV市場への道 標準化されたブロックラバーから、電気自動車時代と持続可能な素材への新しい役割へ。 STR20は単なる輸出品ではなく、世界のタイヤ産業の「心臓部」であり、川上から川下までをつなぎ、タイを世界的なEVハブへと導く存在です。

he Thai baht in Q1 2026 is expected to strengthen against the US dollar, driven primarily by a weaker dollar globally, a seasonal tourism boost, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This strength is occurring despite a weak domestic economic outlook and the Bank of Thailand's (BoT) likely continued easing of its policy rate. Exchange Rate Drivers and Forecast External Factors: The primary driver for the strengthening baht is external, mainly the broad weakness of the US dollar as global markets price in expected Fed rate cuts. The baht is also correlated with global gold prices, which have been climbing. Tourism High Season: The period extending into Q1 2026 is the high season for tourism, which typically brings in foreign currency and supports the baht's value. Policy Divergence: The BoT is expected to continue its easing cycle, potentially cutting the policy rate further to 1.00% by Q1 2026 to stimulate the sluggish domestic economy. This divergence from a potentially less aggressive US Fed in Q1 could support the baht in the short term, though some analysts warn the currency could weaken later in 2026. Forecasts: Projections for 2026 generally place the baht in a range of 30.80–33.00 per US dollar. Some models estimate it could trade around 31.06 by the end of Q1. A persistently strong baht below 31 per US$ is seen as a significant risk to the Thai export and tourism sectors. Key Economic Context Weak Growth: Thailand's economy is expected to slow down to a 5-year low growth rate of around 1.6-1.8% in 2026, pressured by US tariffs, global trade tensions, and high household debt. The central bank chief expects an improvement in Q1 2026 after a weak second half of 2025. Political Uncertainty: A general election expected in February 2026 could also introduce volatility, though some historical trends suggest the baht may strengthen following the formation of a new government. Low Inflation: Headline inflation is projected to remain subdued or even negative, providing the central bank with justification for further rate cuts to stimulate demand. In summary, Q1 2026 is characterized by a strong and volatile baht driven by external factors, contrasting sharply with a weak domestic economy and accommodative monetary policy.